Can I fold AK here ?

This was the $3 rebuy on Pokerstars. There was about 25 players remaining. Utg moves all in and I feel certain that he has JJ. I didnt really feel like gambling with a 50 50 shot here. I considered folding but called since if I won it I would have had 2.2 million chips and a good chance at winning the tournament. Also, if I lost the hand I still had about 500k left and enough to try to double up from. If I had less chips than the player I may well have folded here. Any opinions on the merits of calling or laying down, given how deep it is in the tourney and that I am above average already.

Limit - Level XXVII (20000/40000) Table '100869472 229' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: probst72 (920523 in chips)
Seat 2: TJKinger (1076258 in chips)
Seat 4: cy1981 (484612 in chips)
Seat 5: pinballed (2427360 in chips)
Seat 6: VoodooChild2 (635206 in chips)
Seat 8: $till_$TACKN (327956 in chips)
Seat 9: Sulla (1367312 in chips)
probst72: posts the ante 4000
TJKinger: posts the ante 4000
cy1981: posts the ante 4000
pinballed: posts the ante 4000
VoodooChild2: posts the ante 4000
$till_$TACKN: posts the ante 4000
Sulla: posts the ante 4000
$till_$TACKN: posts small blind 20000
Sulla: posts big blind 40000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sulla [Ks As]
probst72: raises 876523 to 916523 and is all-in
TJKinger: folds
cy1981: folds
pinballed: folds
VoodooChild2: folds
$till_$TACKN: folds
Sulla: calls 876523
*** FLOP *** [7s 6h Th]
*** TURN *** [7s 6h Th] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [7s 6h Th Jd] [9h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Sulla: shows [Ks As] (high card Ace)
probst72: shows [Jh Jc] (three of a kind, Jacks)
probst72 collected 1881046 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1881046 | Rake 0
Board [7s 6h Th Jd 9h]
Seat 1: probst72 showed [Jh Jc] and won (1881046) with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 2: TJKinger folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: cy1981 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: pinballed folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: VoodooChild2 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: $till_$TACKN (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Sulla (big blind) showed [Ks As] and lost with high card Ace

Honestly? It's a bit of an overshove on his part - he's nowhere near being shortstacked. He's putting something like 23 BBs in this hand. Now, I like the call better because you cover him - BUT if you call and lose you're shortstacked and not in a very good place any more. AK isn't even a hand yet - unless you're confident he would make the same kind of push with something like AQ, where you could be dominating, you're probably not really going to like seeing his cards when you call.

If the stacks on either your or his part were smaller (or blinds were higher), I could make a better argument in favor of the call. As I see it, though, you have plenty of breathing room to find a much better spot than intentionally risking it all on a coinflip (you don't even have fold equity, as you're the one calling).

Thanks, you've made some good points there. I think I agree with your logic about getting a better spot. I think I'll do so next time

Well I agree he might have overbet at that point, but, by making such a big raise keeps any of the weak calling hands out of the pot. Say he makes a somewhat smaller raise, which you call, then raised after the flop, what do you do then? Call or fold? You were beat regardless of him hitting trips, but because of the chip situation I think I would have called as well.

I think he had far too many chips for you to comfortably call and NOT be crippled if you lost. I think going all in at that stage so far in the torni is a bit of a waste tbh...its not worth a coinflip. anyway how did you know he didn't have kings or aces? I wouldn't see why any1 would go all in with much less especially with as many chips as he did have so you knew he had a very good hand and it could have been kings/aces. I keep on telling myself in the later stages of a torni not to make unecessary risks and i'm sorry but i think this was one. You didn't need to double up then because you had a nice sized stack as it was. I would have fondly waved goodbye to my hand. anyway hope this helps.

I think you should fold because is a big raise from UTG in better of chances you are in a coin flip. UTG only raise with monsters if he raise with KK or AA you are underdog in hand. Yout think he have JJ is a race 47%-53% its gambling.

I didnt really feel like gambling with a 50 50 shot here.

Sometimes you just need to go with your gut feeling. In this situation it will probably be a coin flip. If you feel good about that, then call, otherwise fold and look for a better spot.

[Lucky_Bub]

First off, how could you put him on Jacks? If somebody shoves UTG with a 20+ big blind stack, it's very likely they have a hand better than Jacks.

This was a terrible shove on his part. He is taking a good hand, pocket J's, and turning it into a complete bluff. The only hands that can call him now are hands the crush him. The only hand he would want to call is the hand you have, AK. See why this isn't a good call? Not only do you beat nothing, but two hands he could likely be shoving here dominate you.

A little history might be in order...had you seen a lot of all-ins pre-flop already, or was this unusual? If he had been pushing a lot, indicating that he was going after the blinds with less than premium hands, I might well call with the AK, but if he hasn't given me some solid reason to think he's just trying to steal, I'd go ahead and give him some credit and let it go. What kind of hand makes that big of a bet in that situation? Usually either a small or middle pair or AK. In neither case are you ahead. A vastly oversized bet like that usually means that you don't want a call, you're happy to win the blinds, but your hand does have some value so if you do get a call you have a fighting chance. Against the pairs you're slightly behind, and against AK you're a total coin-flip. Why risk 2/3 of your stack at this point on a coin-flip? Right now, as the 2nd biggest stack, you can threaten other players with elimination; if you lose you're the one that's crippled.

In this spot, you've got the 2nd biggest stack at the table, and plenty enough given the size of the blinds. I'd let the AK go here and wait for a better opportunity. I'd much rather be the aggressor, where my raises have the added equity that everyone else might fold. Here, you're opponent is already all-in, so the call is really a passive play. I'd be thinking I could afford to wait for better opportunities than what is presented here. I should have plenty of good opportunities to continue building my stack at this point.

So the short answer is "yes, you can easily fold AK here."

Thats poker! Isnt fair all the time, not fear all the time!
I love this game
#)