In The Money or Final 3?

Personally its an all in preflop... ya got a solid hand that can be only dominated by two hands preflop AA and KK. If you've been playing this way by creeping into the money that is probably why your intial 100 has only turned into 750. You need to play to win, not to place.

Another thing is that $20 mtts (yes 180mans are MTTS) are a little bit over your range unless you consistently cash. You should have 100x the buy in of an MTT tournament to attempt it seeing as the cash rate is much lower than an STT.

[babykahuna]

Originally Posted by theparamount

Personally its an all in preflop... ya got a solid hand that can be only dominated by two hands preflop AA and KK. If you've been playing this way by creeping into the money that is probably why your intial 100 has only turned into 750. You need to play to win, not to place.

Another thing is that $20 mtts (yes 180mans are MTTS) are a little bit over your range unless you consistently cash. You should have 100x the buy in of an MTT tournament to attempt it seeing as the cash rate is much lower than an STT.

Sorry a pair of deuces dominates Big Slick. No one says youre going to pair up. We are talking about the bubble here. Its still a gamble. Give me any pair against an unmade hand anytime on the bubble.

[6ofakindaces]

if you are making money instead of losing it then why you should change your style??

Definitely a push here, you should be playing to get at least second, when you get heads up you play for first. As for AK being a dog to a PP, that's true, but only a little bit unless it's AA or KK which is most likely more than compensated for by the blinds and antes at this point. It's a lot more likely your opponents have unpaired hands anyhow as it's 1/17 shot of getting a PP. And since you have an ace and king it makes it much less likely that you'll be up against AA or KK.

[CPOner]

Originally Posted by babykahuna

Sorry a pair of deuces dominates Big Slick. No one says youre going to pair up. We are talking about the bubble here. Its still a gamble. Give me any pair against an unmade hand anytime on the bubble.

while this is true that any pair is a favorite against AK you need to be comparing it to the likely calling range of your opponents not vs each other

what are they calling your all in with? any ace, any 2 broadway cards, any pair? thats a pretty loose calling range (especially near the bubble) but its a range i see tons of people calling with in lower stakes MTTs and if they have a very big stack its certainly a reasonable range

AKo vs the above range is 63% favorite because of all the aces that call that you dominate... most of the pairs you have in coinflips... only hands in the range to worry about are AA and KK

22 vs the above range is 44% underdog because of the hands that call you... you are either in a coinflip (2 overs)... or you are a 4 to 1 dog (any pair)... and there is 1 hand you dominate (A2)

that is the power of AK in these situations... id much rather push with AK than 22 here personally

id certainly shove the AK here for the above reasons plus the fold equity you get from shoving... i also think your fold equity increases against small/medium stacks because it is the bubble and they dont want to go out either, their tighter calling range equals more folds for you.... very big stacks will possibly call you with a wider range so thats less folds for you... but you are still likely to be in good shape if called

i really dont like the limp for a few reasons...

#1. the power of AK is seeing all 5 cards
#2. the limp is 17% of your stack
#3. the blinds are about to hit you taking another 1200 (+200 for antes) in the next 2 hands reducing your stack by another 30% and taking away any fold equity you did have before
#4. in order for you to win the hand multiple things have to happen... no one can raise after you plus you need to hit the flop which happens 33% of the time and plus no one can hit a better hand by the river... your limp invites multiple people into the pot with marginal hands that can easily catch up...
#5. another way you can win the hand is to shove on any flop... but if you were planning that its probably better/safer to just shove preflop

i understand the reasoning of folding near the bubble like this... but i think if you take that approach, you should of just open folded instead of limping to conserve your stack and fold equity for a post bubble shove

i think alot of the above is player/read dependent... because you need to put the players on a calling range and every player is different... but this deep in the tourney you should be able to estimate a calling range for each and act accordingly

but then again... there is no possible calling range that i am not shoving against with AK here

if i know the villains calling range is really tight... he only calls with AA,KK,QQ,AK then AKo is a 38.8% dog... but if that is his calling range he is folding 97.4% of the time (that range makes up 2.6% of the hands possible)... so if you are getting folds 97.4% of the time and in the rare instance when you do get called (2.6% of the time) you are 39% against his range... its still an easy shove

on the other side...if you know the villains calling range is extremely loose... lets say any 2 cards... ak is 65% favorite against that range... still a fairly easy shove with positive expectation even if we know he never folds

id say the biggest worry is that because of your position, you could get multiple callers... but near the bubble it makes it highly unlikely unless you have very large stacks at your table that can afford to gamble

just my 2 cents

WTF are folding that on the bubble for? That is an insta-shove everytime...Anyway The concept of top 3 or ITM is a very debatable topic...Your going to have the NIT who are more than happy to play 4 hours and make $6...and then your going to have the other type of player who is more willing to take risk to make it big. My opinion..everytime I enter a tournament i'm looking for the Final Table..then the big W!!! Whoever says playing MTT for ITM is a super NIT who needs to stop playing MTT because the final table and the top 3 spots are where the money is at..IF you want to be break-even at best..then go ahead and just shoot for ITM...All in all it depends on the style of poker you play and what best suits you...

But for real that was a SUPER weak laydown....and if you ever want to make some money playing MTT...change your mind set to winning the touney! Everytime you enter that should be your main goal...

[babykahuna]

Excellent post CPOner. Riverking tell me. Youre in the Main Event WSOP. Youre on the bubble. You know you can make It In the Money. You make the money you get your 10K back and double that if you make the money. DO you risk it then? Its easy to talk but when the cash is on the line what to do. On a small tournament yeah easy decision. If you got some cash on the line another. If you been bad beat for the last 6 weeks and outside of the money and want to change the scenario what then. Easy to talk.
CPOner props for you to give a good analysis.

[CPOner]

Originally Posted by babykahuna

Excellent post CPOner. Riverking tell me. Youre in the Main Event WSOP. Youre on the bubble. You know you can make It In the Money. You make the money you get your 10K back and double that if you make the money. DO you risk it then? Its easy to talk but when the cash is on the line what to do. On a small tournament yeah easy decision. If you got some cash on the line another. If you been bad beat for the last 6 weeks and outside of the money and want to change the scenario what then. Easy to talk.
CPOner props for you to give a good analysis.

id like to say that if i was in the main event on the bubble... and i know i can make the money by folding... im folding the AK here without question and all my friends can call me a wimp as im collecting my 20k at the cage

babykahuna... u ever consider joining one of the video coaching sites? it helped my game tremendously... the initial cost hurts the bankroll a bit, but i have won back more then i pay for the site as a direct result of the things ive learned there

pokerxfactor.com is the one im subscribed to and its more geared towards MTT and SNG players then the other sites..

instructors on the site are
JohnnyBax - bracelet winner and well known VERY successful online poker pro
Sheets - who earlier this month won the main event at a WSOP circuit event and is another well known online pro
Rizen - won the sunday million on poker stars, placed 24th in the WSOP main event in 2006... etc etc etc

a bunch of other instructors that are all very very successful players... pearljammer (fulltilt pro), aaaaaaaa (who won the FTOPS main event), etc etc etc

you should check it out or you can message me for more details

if i had ak i would raise in the preflop and if someone plays all in i will call. ak its one of the best poker hands

Easy answer here. I pull out my Super System 2 about 3 or 4 times a month to help me keep my mind straight and possibly point out any moronic mistakes I have made lately.

Doyle has a great point and here is the answer to the title of this thread:

This is not verbatim but it is pretty much on point.

If you are playing in a tournament because you need the money, tighten up and watch people get knocked out. If your main objective is to win the tournament, this is the prime situation to play agressively and get closer to the chip leader.

Personally, I do not play to make the money even though I do about 25%-30% of the time. I play to win tournaments. The ROI in MTT's is horrible unless you make the final table. What is the point of sitting around and waiting in, for example, a 3000 man tournament when you know you are not going to make any real money until 2991 people are eliminated.

You have to be one of the people who knocks out some of these 2991 players. You won't do that if you are folding to the money.