Any Pocket Pair

[mrparkland]

Can someone explain to me why I get donkeys calling me without a pocket pair ?

I want to double so I go all in with pocket tens.

Some guy calls me with KQ.

The river turns up a Queen.

I figured his odds of catching the king or queen could not be any higher than 13%. 6 / 48 = 12.5.

was he high stack? was it suited? were u looking for any reason to go all in? there is a lot of reasons he could have possibly called you

Cash game or tournament? Position? Image? Just lot's more questions without more info, before you can get a good answer. If the only hands I raised/called with were pocket pairs I'd have been broke long ago.

His odds of winning were much greater than what you have calculated. If you were heads up, his chances of beating you with KQo, pre-flop, are over 40%(Over 45% if he is suited). The chances obviously change depending on multiple facors like how many were in on the hand to start, ect.

If you just want to calculate odds of him hitting his hand with 6 outs(He had more), his chance of hitting at any point between the flop and the river were actually 24% (Almost twice what you gave him).

As others above have said, there could have been a lot more to his reason for calling. It also could have been some donkey with no clue.


~H

Yeah, what are you overplaying TT for?

I guess wait around for painted pair before overplaying it, but I'm sure most of us won't overplay KK or AA or QQ to get some action.

His overcards are racing nearly 50/50 against lower pocket pairs.

was watching one of the poker shows a while back & maybe someone else here can help me out, with the who what where when, but I think it was Chris Ferguson that was asked what was one of the biggest mistakes people make in holdem & the answer was "overplaying small to middle pocket pairs". with the caller holding not one but 2 over cards to you pocket 10s it's basically a coinflip! cardplayer.com's odds calculator shows 53/46% for 10 10 vs K Q s & 56/43% 10 10 vs K Q os not much of an edge when it comes right down to it & nowhere near what you figured it should be. your math doesn't take into account the fact that the board is made up of 5 cards not 1. & as for him looking you up, if he saw that you were going all in with low & middle pocket prs then he probably figured he had the 2 overcards & was willing to put his money in on a coinflip. a bit of a gamble, agreed, but he wasn't holding anywhere near the dog you figured. he's supposed to win that race almost as often as he loses.

[mrparkland]

How do you arrive at 45% ?

I don't see that. There are at most 3 kings, and 3 queens left in
the deck.

Where do you get 45 % from ?

[mrparkland]

Sit and go. I was in 3rd place and wanted to double up.

[mrparkland]

ah. 24%. So 78 times out of 100 --- I will win. I guess I made a good move going all in then.

[icecoldkiller]

Originally Posted by mrparkland

ah. 24%. So 78 times out of 100 --- I will win. I guess I made a good move going all in then.

I am not sure what you are trying to learn with your question combined with your response to the questions asked.

I had pocket Kings and short stacked when the large tournament was near the bubble. I pushed all in from late position, I had about 1 M was not a threat to the big stacks. I get the call I need to chip up, big stack with pocket 3's. I lose when thy hit a set. It had nothing to do with their cars, they would have called me with alsomst any two cards at this point. I'd have made the same call, even with two live overs.

Your push was what a short stack might do, but not a good odds push unless you are down to 1 M. If you had several M, then depending on your postion I'd want to just see the flop here. Your play still depends on the other two players stacks, and your position.