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am sorry but in tournament poker luck is a factor, there will be times when your in with the worst of it and you suck out, to advance to the big money your either need the majority of your hands to hold up or you need to suck out at least a couple of times or a combination of them both
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If you consider a person who is the favorite not winning as having bad luck, or the person who is the dog winning as good luck, then it goes without saying that there is luck in poker. However I, like nymets14450, don't consider that to be luck, its just a random element that is part of the game. I don't think it qualifies as luck because it doesn't favor any player over another, and its only streaky when looking back at it. Yes its true that certain strategies will give you more opportunities to appear "lucky" and that bad cards in the past can create losing in the future (via your play changing), but this is equally true to all players at all times. People like to single out tournements as the realm of luck because they want to look at tournements as single entities, as opposed to the long run. The random elements in poker have a larger impact in the short run, whether you are talking about tourneys or ring games. When people talk about ring games its usually thought that 6 months averages should be used to evaluate play to minimize the random element; that's 1000 hours or more for a pro. If you look at 1000 hours of tournement play you will see that randomness plays a similarily small role. |
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To win a big tourney, you need to get lucky. You need to play good, but there will be a few times that you must get lucky to take it down. |
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In tournies you need to have a few big hands go your way and not have any major suck outs to make it too the big money, just like having a good ring game session.
I can play well for hours, and have someone hit a 3 outer for a 30BB pot, and have a losing session. So instead of having won 5 a hour for 5 hours, I end up losing 1 BB a hour. But by the same token if I hit my draws 9 of 10 times, catch a few nice flops in the big blind I can look like the next WSOP champ. It's luck, but if continualy put yourself in good positions luck is actually a skill. |
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