2008-08-14 - Number of flushes

[railbird]

2008-08-14 - Number of flushes

[Hughes4]

Basically. If they all have sets, they aren't going to fill up, so your flush will be good and you will hit it enough to make it +EV

If you all have flush draws it depends what their cards are, specifically if they have a King or not.(or straight possibilities)

i would assume that the others r waiting for the flush draw..so i would not even bet on that hand...

If they all had sets then I was already beat, right? But, for those that had a flush draw, as I did, if we hit, then I would win. (I'm a newbie, so if this is not right, consider the source).

I would love to see the math on each of the options. I understand that when all have sets that it's positive EV for me.

I selected 1 case. That was the flush draw case. In the long run if you are fighting sets, you aren't going to come out on top most of the time. If you are fighting one or two sets, you are done for because some of your flush cards are gone.

Originally Posted by deton8whore

I selected 1 case. That was the flush draw case. In the long run if you are fighting sets, you aren't going to come out on top most of the time. If you are fighting one or two sets, you are done for because some of your flush cards are gone.

No, at most the sets are reducing the number of flush cards by one - The KH. And that will only occur 1/3 of the time there is a set of Ks.

[Hughes4]

MATH EXPLANATION
You are getting 3:1 on your money in this spot, so for a +EV you need better than 3:1 odds to win....So >25%

If they all have sets:
Ah 6h = 33%
5 5 = 05%
4 4 = 05%
K K = 58%

If one set:
Ah 6h = 18%
5 5 = 80%
Xh Xh = 1-2%
Xh Xh = 1-2%

If two sets:
Ah 6h = 24.8%
Xh Xh = 02%
5 5 = 68%
4 4 = 05%

It's a 50/50 shot so play it that way

Thanks for the math.... I answered two myself and had them rated in that order, but I wanted to see the proof!