2008-08-14 - Number of flushes

[jurgen]

Easy question for me as A6 suited is my favo hand:i chose 1 scenario the one everyone had sets

my suggestion if everyone went all-in i would call cuz only thing that would beat me is a full-house or a straight

my guess i have about 20% to hit the flush
and if i did hit i would have 90% to win it and 10% to lose it this is not calculated just a guess from my experience

and in the real case i hate to go all-in with this flop but i would have no choice this is 1 of the flops i would want to get 4 people paying me out

Originally Posted by mamatwig

i would assume that the others r waiting for the flush draw..so i would not even bet on that hand...

urely if you assume others have a flush draw and nothing else then with ace high kicked or if flush is made again ace high you should bet out....

Originally Posted by Hughes4

MATH EXPLANATION
You are getting 3:1 on your money in this spot, so for a +EV you need better than 3:1 odds to win....So >25%

If they all have sets:
Ah 6h = 33%
5 5 = 05%
4 4 = 05%
K K = 58%

If one set:
Ah 6h = 18%
5 5 = 80%
Xh Xh = 1-2%
Xh Xh = 1-2%

If two sets:
Ah 6h = 24.8%
Xh Xh = 02%
5 5 = 68%
4 4 = 05%

Just ran this thru pokerstove, and i got pretty much the same numbers except if they have two sets it was about 25.5%, making that one slightly profitable in the long run, so I'd say the answer is three. Instead of specifically assigning which sets they had I gave each a range of all three possible sets, in each excluding the card in play.

Originally Posted by footballcj

No, at most the sets are reducing the number of flush cards by one - The KH. And that will only occur 1/3 of the time there is a set of Ks.

Yeah, I missed that but my idea about it still hit the same answer.

what is this about? i heard there is a quiz winner freeroll! how do u get to be in that?