2008-08-11 - AA odds?

[BrainyRedneck]

The probability to get the first ace is 4/50 (4 aces out of 50 remaining cards) leaving the probability to get the second 3/49. Multiplying those together since you have to have both to get pocket aces gives you .0049 and multiplying that by the fact that there are 9 possible people it could be dealt to gives you .044 or 4.4%
I have a math degree so my word should be taken as law :P

So could you fill us in on how to calculate these odds? To me I wuld say AA has 90% success just from experience AA always wins!!!

Originally Posted by sandbender

Didn't need my slide rule after all - Wikipedia has it all figured out! But they disagree with the quizmaster :
Poker probability (Texas hold 'em) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The following table gives the probability that a hand is facing two or more larger pairs before the flop. From the previous equations, the probability Pm is computed as P_m = P_2 + P_3 + \c... + P_n.
Probability of facing multiple larger pairs when holding KK against 10 players is 0.00016

Question didn't ask for the probability of facing TWO opponents both having pocket Aces -- just one.

Originally Posted by Drawdy10

So could you fill us in on how to calculate these odds? To me I wuld say AA has 90% success just from experience AA always wins!!!

My experience also holds that AA wins the vast majority of the time....but when it loses, it loses spectacularly. Whoever it was who said, "Pocket aces win small pots, and lose big ones" knew what he was talking about.

The times I have won the most with Rockets, I have slow-played them. The paradox there, of course, is that slow-playing them sometimes enables a trailing opponent to draw the card(s) necessary to beat them.

Yeah wasn't thinking...realized that odds of Aces were about 1:220 for you, and forgot about the rest of the table. Ah well. Still seems a bit high...

[jonnie2thumbs]

Originally Posted by Drawdy10

So could you fill us in on how to calculate these odds? To me I wuld say AA has 90% success just from experience AA always wins!!!

Can we get in the quiz freeroll by answering our own questions?



PS May your good luck with AA continue Drawdy

what a question the first reply made sense what bout all these numbers i fink i just got lucky with this one lol g quiz quiz man

Originally Posted by BrainyRedneck

The probability to get the first ace is 4/50 (4 aces out of 50 remaining cards) leaving the probability to get the second 3/49. Multiplying those together since you have to have both to get pocket aces gives you .0049 and multiplying that by the fact that there are 9 possible people it could be dealt to gives you .044 or 4.4%
I have a math degree so my word should be taken as law :P

I think this guy has the answer to it, not sure though.

Oh, that hurt my ONE brain cell, but thanks! I know that I will remember 4.4 in the future when I am holding pkt Ks! Good to learn how to calculate these things!

I lost 5 min. ago with AA vs KK , I have AA the flop gives (3 , Q , 5) I raise , he call's and all the other players get away , the turn gives a (J) I checked , he move all in , I call ... and the river give's (K) ... He wins! OMG!!! Maybe I should be more agressive in the flop , but i wanted get more chips .. but that river!! OMG!!