2008-08-07 - A river decision

[railbird]

2008-08-07 - A river decision

[Lloydinho77]

easy peasy


lemon squeezy

are you even joking?
calling with a pair of 5's... yeah... that's sure to work out
raise... even if he had a king, you might get him to fold

i said raise. try to get him out of the hand

I fell on the conservative side and called. what if he had the J? you don't know. so it's worth seeing. If would uber suck if he called your raise only to suck you out. be modest and limit the damage since you're in the hand anyways. might as well play to see if he's bluffing.

Originally Posted by railbird

2008-08-07 - A river decision

i would reraise to get him out the hand in case he caught the 7 on the river

Has quizzy been reading The Theory of Poker lately?

The question says that you are pretty sure you are ahead based on a tell you have on your opponent. So we're not really worried about him having caught the 7. He might be ahead, but probably not.

According to David Sklansky, you should not bet on the river if your opponent is only likely to call if he has you beat. Let's say "reasonably sure" means it's 75% you have him beat and 25% that he has you beat.

The real question is, the 75% of the time you have him beat, will he call your raise on the river? If he will frequently call you with the worse hand, then you should raise.

But if he'll only call the 25% of the time he's ahead, then betting has no positive expectation (if you bet and he's behind, he'll fold, if you bet and he's ahead, he'll call...in neither case does your bet win you any money).

So here's what's really missing from the quiz...it says you know your opponent well and play with him often. So you should know what kinds of hands he would call with here, and that's even more important information to have than the tell.

[TheCody86]

This question doesn't take into account that you have a tell on your opponent..if you show down with a low pair he'll probably realize it and switch up his game, in tourney poker, calling is the correct move. In cash games one should take into account future profits from said opponent...sometimes the theoretically correct move is overall -EV in cash games.

I would raise to induce a fold. It all depends on the tell and my history playing with him, but I would move to get him out.

[Topis]

I was going to bitch about how raising was the wrong answer, but then I realized we were first to check the river. Check-raising doesn't make any sense how the hand was played.

As he knows how we play, he can easily re-reraise with air there and call with any pair. Unless we go for crazy check-raises with monsters after we check the turn and river in a limped pot. And we wouldn't do stuff like that, right?