2008-03-14 - Two pair trouble

[the_Styb]

I tell ya, I'm sick and tired of Quizmindreader B telling me what my read is. If Quizzy thinks the Villain is on a draw, that's his read, but following the action tells me that the Villain has a K or 5 and is just hoping for me to take a stab at the pot. I know that's what I'd do if I were in his place.

That being said, a pot bet is a great move if you have the stones to make it work. The problem here is that if the Villain sees through your bluff, you're still dead. Any card in his hand higher than a 4 and he out-kicks you, plain and simple. (Or worse.) I see nothing in the way the Hero played this hand to make the villain back down, so while bluffing the river may be the correct play, I'm checking and cutting my losses.

Now if someone can explain how I got yesterdays quiz wrong when they didn't even post one...

Originally Posted by the_Styb

I tell ya, I'm sick and tired of Quizmindreader B telling me what my read is. If Quizzy thinks the Villain is on a draw, that's his read, but following the action tells me that the Villain has a K or 5 and is just hoping for me to take a stab at the pot. I know that's what I'd do if I were in his place.

That being said, a pot bet is a great move if you have the stones to make it work. The problem here is that if the Villain sees through your bluff, you're still dead. Any card in his hand higher than a 4 and he out-kicks you, plain and simple. (Or worse.) I see nothing in the way the Hero played this hand to make the villain back down, so while bluffing the river may be the correct play, I'm checking and cutting my losses.

Now if someone can explain how I got yesterdays quiz wrong when they didn't even post one...

The point of today's quiz is to use the information given. If you have the exact read and exact information given by Quizzy and use it to play the hand in your mind with only that information, what is your answer?

You have to bet the pot here. You have 4 times the pot back which means you most likely have a hell of a lot of money back considering 2 pot bets and 2 calls. If you bet too little or too much, the villain calls you out of curiosity and you lose. If you bet the pot here, the villain has to put you on at least an Ace high if not a higher pair than the fives. If you are reraised, like I previously stated, you have enough money back to fold and get it back on another hand. If you check here, you are giving the hand away to anything better than 26 offsuit. I would much rather bet the pot and give away the money to a reraise than to bet the pot twice and then just check it down to play my 4 high and give it away without a fight.

Quizzy, I rarely agree with you but today you are spot on.

Originally Posted by redfan73

The point of today's quiz is to use the information given.

I think this is an important point in a lot of these quizzes.

That said, if that is what my read was...that the best hand my opponent could possibly have is an A kicker, then I don't think half pot is enough...and I think pot is too much. It seems that online poker has tended towards always making pot sized bets, but in reality, we don't need to bet that big all of the time in order to foil our opponent's pot odds. For one thing, if our opponent has called us all the way down with a flush draw or a straight draw, then we've already outplayed him, and we don't even need to bet pot.

I like to structure my bets, for the most part, between half and full pot depending on what is on the board. If the board is extremely coordinated, I will bet full pot. If the board isn't coordinated at all, I'll bet half pot. What this tends to do is 1) it disguises my draws, since I like to semi-bluff a lot especially when I have position and 2) it makes is so that when I do bluff, it only has to work 50% of the time or less in order to make it profitable long term. If I bet pot all of the time on my bluffs, then, if we are to take rake into account, my bluffs have to work more than half of the time in order to be profitable.

[Rowanlea]

S/he has got smooth called all this way,.. I think s/he has AK, or KQ,.. and s/he knows if s/he bets here you will fold, so a check to get all your chips is a great play,.. I would check too,.. can't beat much, why give away chips,..

[Spaz]

If Villain is a crafty player, they may have you on a bluff or busted flush draw and know that checking the river is the only way to get more money out of you.
But, since we don't know what kind of a player they are, we've just gotta use the information given. Our goal should be to put out a bet that looks like we've got the King, so a low value bet, but we want our bet to be just high enough to drive off a call with the AsXs, thinking their ace high kicker is good. I'd rather drop the bet to about 3/4 pot, as this will look a little closer to a value bet than a full pot bet. Unless they have an excellent read on us, 3/4 pot is still too much to call with only the ace high after we raised the flop and bet the turn.

You bet the pot on the flop and the turn and got called both times. If the player was on a flush/straight draw they have up to 15 outs if they have the 64(spades)giving them 2-1 pot odds and you are giving 1-1 odds with poor implied odds (You are not going to bet if a flush, straight or an Ace hits the board and probably not call if they bet when that happens. If they were on that draw they can not beat your pair of 4's so they are probably not going to call any bet you make on the river. What other hand can they be setting on other than a flush/straight draw that they would call your bets? Another small pair or Kx. I don't think they were on a flush or straight draw. I think they are setting on Kx or another small pair and are not going to fold to another bet if they are. You have fired twice and got called both times, they have something and it's time to give up....Yes I know it is a weak play but I'm done with this hand.

[dealem52]

The pot bet is too much. If we really did have the big hand we are representing why the hell are we making such a large bet on the river? Wouldn't we want to get called? The half pot bet screams value bet which should raise a red flag in the villan and make him think twice about calling. Remember, we want him to fold because we can't win. The pot size bet looks like we also missed and are just trying to steal it. He very well might find THAT to be a little fishy.

On another note, to answer this question properly we really need to know haw we have been betting in prior hands. To make the bluff work we have stay consistent. Have we always bet pot on the river when we have the nuts or do we make a value bet of half the pot? Whichever it is should be what you bet.

Most of the plays here are valid. I hate the check unless you are giving up. There is NO WAY you can win a showdown so why would you check. You already have a significant amount of money in the pot, are you going to protect it or not?

This really comes down to what your table image is. If you have played tight up to this point you have a real shot at the pot sized bet pushing him off. If you have played loose or even semi loose you are history because he will expect the bet no matter what you have.

This one is all table image - HIS perception not yours.

[alanchiras]

Originally Posted by bbqpony

The quiz maker is smoking crack again, nuff said.

I agree. Why Bet after the flop when you did not hit your hand and there are overcards??? I would have mucked much earlier.

Thanks! Alan Chiras.

[DEBRASEID]

I personally wouldn't have bet after the flop to begin with.