2008-03-12 - Triple jump #3

[railbird]

2008-03-12 - Triple jump #3

Unless somone else is typing and beats me to it, it looks like I'm first to comment...unless the network is being really screwy and I'm really something like 20th, but won't know until after I post!

Anyway, today's quiz I have no argument with. This is great basic strategy--there is absolutely no reason to bet here. The only hands that will call you at this point almost certainly have you beat. The drawing hands will fold. So a bet here has a negative expectation.

Don't bet on the end unless there is a reasonable chance that either A) a bluff is likely to work and is your only probable way to win the hand or B) a weaker hand may likely call you. If neither of those is true, what exactly are you trying to accomplish?

Now we'll see if I'm really first...

Originally Posted by 20dragons

Unless somone else is typing and beats me to it, it looks like I'm first to comment...unless the network is being really screwy and I'm really something like 20th, but won't know until after I post!

Anyway, today's quiz I have no argument with. This is great basic strategy--there is absolutely no reason to bet here. The only hands that will call you at this point almost certainly have you beat. The drawing hands will fold. So a bet here has a negative expectation.

Don't bet on the end unless there is a reasonable chance that either A) a bluff is likely to work and is your only probable way to win the hand or B) a weaker hand may likely call you. If neither of those is true, what exactly are you trying to accomplish?

Now we'll see if I'm really first...

You were first and you are correct. You did your best to get the villain off the pot on the flop and turn. He didn't go anywhere. There is no reason to bet here. If he has been slowplaying a set the whole time or AJ/QT just to see if the flush draw hit, he has you right where he wants you. IF you bet on the river, there is no way you can call a reraise even if the villain is bluffing.

Nice job today, Quizzy!!

[AmokTime]

I would just check because if you bet and he's beat he's not going to just call ,,, he either folds or puts up a big raise then I might have to fold

[Hemi-Sport]

If you've ever had a hand you wished you would of never got involved in, this is probably it. You've pushed and pushed with a draw that never came. You've got a pair of 9s with a weak kicker, and probably just lost most your chips. I got the answer right by checking, but the only way to take the pot now, is to steal it. Not the best play, but the whole hand has been played questionable to me.

[2fun4u]

I'm with Hemi on this one. I would rather have not been involved with this hand from jump street. Anywho, I'm rather stoked I got part 3 right FINALLY WE AGREED

[MA_Marauder]

I guess I was correct just checking the first 2 times and not blowing my stack on draws eh.

I don't regret playing that hand out and would probably play it the same way again, although I might push a little harder on the post turn bet.

Hindsight is 20/20 but given the circumstances and the percentages of hitting just one of 13 outs (doesn't count the two outs for trip nines) after the flop on two tries - yea I would play it again.

Straight - Flush draws -- 13 outs
You are about 52% to hit after the flop
You are about 26% to hit after the turn

Add in the two outs for trip 9's -- 15 outs
You are about 60% to hit after the flop
You are about 30% to hit after the turn

If he slow played me then I would have to pay him off. Sometimes you can play a good hand and still lose.

I wouldve gone with check. The opponent was quite aggressive though i have to admit

I do what i always do..i go all in preflop and those kinds of problems never become an issue.

your welcome and happy to help anytime