2008-03-12 - Triple jump #3

[Zlin50]

Checking is the obvious here.
Your opponent checked either because he is trapping your agressiveness or because he was on a draw and has nothing.

I think hero has played like he has a made hand--opponent plays as if he is drawing--AK or AQ of hearts---preflop raise and continuation bet on flop--call on flop reraise and call on turn bet. I think you're all giving this opponent much credit for being "sneaky"--i think a value bet on river represents you have a pair of J's, and if he doesn't have J's or better, he's not calling.

[the_Styb]

Originally Posted by Mom_of_4_Girls

I think hero has played like he has a made hand--opponent plays as if he is drawing--AK or AQ of hearts---preflop raise and continuation bet on flop--call on flop reraise and call on turn bet. I think you're all giving this opponent much credit for being "sneaky"--i think a value bet on river represents you have a pair of J's, and if he doesn't have J's or better, he's not calling.

It's not a question of the better hand, it's a question of chip management. You have a pair of 9s. Dead to any set, two pair or T/T or better pair. If you bet and the Villain folds you win exactly what the check would get you. If you bet and are called or raised and the Villain holds a better pair you stand to lose much more.

[nightmoves44]

Ive got em right so far,we must think alike eh,anyways,if the guy called this far,hes prolly not giving in.So,I checked here.

[bbqpony]

The opponent is not aggressive as some have described, he is just calling. Which actually makes me very suspect. You've asked a question by betting and the opponent has answered. You have not gotten a lot of information back but you must put him a decent hand, like a straight, two pair, trips or at minimum a draw. If our opponent has a straight you had almost a 40% chance of completing your flush after the flop. After the flop you have slightly more than 20% chance of hitting your flush after the brick hit on 4th. You don't gain anything by betting. A check is a good play. I might call a bet given the right odds to see 5th. More than likely fold anything over aprox 75 dollar bet. If the player hands are shaking I'm tossing it. :-)

[bbgold]

I see 'No Quiz today' Ugh

Guess I am already on tomorrow's page?

Good Luck and Good Games!

[MA_Marauder]

Originally Posted by jiinster

I don't regret playing that hand out and would probably play it the same way again, although I might push a little harder on the post turn bet.

Hindsight is 20/20 but given the circumstances and the percentages of hitting just one of 13 outs (doesn't count the two outs for trip nines) after the flop on two tries - yea I would play it again.

Straight - Flush draws -- 13 outs
You are about 52% to hit after the flop
You are about 26% to hit after the turn

Add in the two outs for trip 9's -- 15 outs
You are about 60% to hit after the flop
You are about 30% to hit after the turn

If he slow played me then I would have to pay him off. Sometimes you can play a good hand and still lose.

Your numbers assume that he doesn't have a higher flush draw or higher straight draw or already doesn't have a higher set. So basically your hoping to get outs that might just end up costing you more money if it improves your opp's hand.

Where is the poker quiz for march 12th??

Originally Posted by MA_Marauder

Your numbers assume that he doesn't have a higher flush draw or higher straight draw or already doesn't have a higher set. So basically your hoping to get outs that might just end up costing you more money if it improves your opp's hand.

This is true. Some would say I am chasing it and I might even agree with them. In this case I have him on a pair of jacks or an A-K and we will never know (why didn't we get the showdown that the check would have mandated in this hand?).

If he has better than the 9's I will just have to pay him but to this point he has been a calling station and I had a lot of outs from the flop all the way down the line.

Originally Posted by MA_Marauder

Your numbers assume that he doesn't have a higher flush draw or higher straight draw or already doesn't have a higher set. So basically your hoping to get outs that might just end up costing you more money if it improves your opp's hand.

A second thought after re reading your post. My numbers count the outs the only way you can count outs. You cannot count outs by guessing that someone has one or more of them. You can only count outs by counting what you can see.