Daily Poker Quiz: Archive

AK flush draw
2008-08-19

You have $285, UTG has slightly more. There are five people at your table. UTG has limped, you have raised to $15, and UTG has called again.

The flop is K J 4.

UTG bets $17, you raise to $50 and the bet is reraised to $100 total.

What's your next move?





Fold
If you fold, you'll have lost $65.

Calling is out of question - you'll have a much harder decision on the turn if you don't hit, and if you do hit your flush it's quite possible that UTG will calm down.

The correct answer is to go all-in. There's about $185 in the pot and you have $220 left. If you put it all in the middle, UTG will (likely) call for another $170, so you're paying $220 to win $355. That means you'll have to win four times out of ten to break even.

Against a made flush (let's assume only QJ, QT, Q9, T9, T8, 98, 87, 76 - all of them suited), you have about 30 % chance of winning. Against a set, about the same (44 most likely, JJ would probably have made have come over the top before the flop).

Against two pair (KJ is the only likely one), you're suddenly ahead, and against all other AK or AA variations, you're at 60-40.

Of course, your opponent might fold, it's not completely impossible that he's bluffing. But you likely have almost or even more than the 40 % you need to break even if you add all possible hands including bluffs together, and I'd take the chance then, rather than losing $65.

Call
If you fold, you'll have lost $65.

Calling is out of question - you'll have a much harder decision on the turn if you don't hit, and if you do hit your flush it's quite possible that UTG will calm down.

The correct answer is to go all-in. There's about $185 in the pot and you have $220 left. If you put it all in the middle, UTG will (likely) call for another $170, so you're paying $220 to win $355. That means you'll have to win four times out of ten to break even.

Against a made flush (let's assume only QJ, QT, Q9, T9, T8, 98, 87, 76 - all of them suited), you have about 30 % chance of winning. Against a set, about the same (44 most likely, JJ would probably have made have come over the top before the flop).

Against two pair (KJ is the only likely one), you're suddenly ahead, and against all other AK or AA variations, you're at 60-40.

Of course, your opponent might fold, it's not completely impossible that he's bluffing. But you likely have almost or even more than the 40 % you need to break even if you add all possible hands including bluffs together, and I'd take the chance then, rather than losing $65.

All-in (correct)
If you fold, you'll have lost $65.

Calling is out of question - you'll have a much harder decision on the turn if you don't hit, and if you do hit your flush it's quite possible that UTG will calm down.

The correct answer is to go all-in. There's about $185 in the pot and you have $220 left. If you put it all in the middle, UTG will (likely) call for another $170, so you're paying $220 to win $355. That means you'll have to win four times out of ten to break even.

Against a made flush (let's assume only QJ, QT, Q9, T9, T8, 98, 87, 76 - all of them suited), you have about 30 % chance of winning. Against a set, about the same (44 most likely, JJ would probably have made have come over the top before the flop).

Against two pair (KJ is the only likely one), you're suddenly ahead, and against all other AK or AA variations, you're at 60-40.

Of course, your opponent might fold, it's not completely impossible that he's bluffing. But you likely have almost or even more than the 40 % you need to break even if you add all possible hands including bluffs together, and I'd take the chance then, rather than losing $65.



Result:

Fold 6%
Call 29%
All-in 65%

Totally 959 vote(s)