Daily Poker Quiz: Archive

Second satellite
2008-07-06

Bubble satellite strategy is hard. With 110 players starting and 6 left, 5 will receive the same prize. Blinds are at 4k-8i and you're in the big blind with 22k (blind included). A shortstack goes all-in for 14k, so it's 6k for you to call.

It's folded to you with 87 suited. You choose to call and the players shows J9, which turns into a full house. Was it correct to call the all-in or should you have folded?





Fold (correct)
It would have been an easy call in a cash-game - paying 6 to win 32 means that you need a 19 % chance of winning, and you do have that against, for instance, AA (23 %). Even against 88, you'll win 18 % of the time, so in a cash-game, it's a no-brainer.

It's a completely different thing in a satellite, however. You know that you'll get a prize if you call and win. Let's say that you win 25 % of the time (very low, but hypothetically) and lose the other 75 %. Those times you lose, you'll only have 8k left - i.e., only one big blind. Half of that will go towards paying the small blind next hand.

The alternatives then are:

a) 25 % chance of winning, 75 % practically broke
b) Fold and keep 14k

14k isn't a lot either, however - only slightly more than another round.

So: If there is a player who's really, really short (with, say, 5-8k) you can fold and hope that he busts before you - he'll get the blinds before you do, so you'll have more than a 50 % chance of going through. If there are no shortstacks, it doesn't really matter if you have 8k or 14k. You'll need a lot of luck anyway, so you might as well call now.

Since the question doesn't state the stack sizes of your opponents, both answers will be correct today.

Call (correct)
It would have been an easy call in a cash-game - paying 6 to win 32 means that you need a 19 % chance of winning, and you do have that against, for instance, AA (23 %). Even against 88, you'll win 18 % of the time, so in a cash-game, it's a no-brainer.

It's a completely different thing in a satellite, however. You know that you'll get a prize if you call and win. Let's say that you win 25 % of the time (very low, but hypothetically) and lose the other 75 %. Those times you lose, you'll only have 8k left - i.e., only one big blind. Half of that will go towards paying the small blind next hand.

The alternatives then are:

a) 25 % chance of winning, 75 % practically broke
b) Fold and keep 14k

14k isn't a lot either, however - only slightly more than another round.

So: If there is a player who's really, really short (with, say, 5-8k) you can fold and hope that he busts before you - he'll get the blinds before you do, so you'll have more than a 50 % chance of going through. If there are no shortstacks, it doesn't really matter if you have 8k or 14k. You'll need a lot of luck anyway, so you might as well call now.

Since the question doesn't state the stack sizes of your opponents, both answers will be correct today.



Result:

Fold 59%
Call 41%

Totally 891 vote(s)