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Tom Dwan is going BROKE

18 2009-03-09 01:16:08
Mike matesow says that Tom Dwan is going broke. I agree. But first for all you that don't knwo Mike is a good player he jsut runs bad and get emotional about it. The reason he lost so much online was becasue of Russ Hamilton. I assuming everyone knows who he is and what he has done. What mike said in "mouth peice" was that he would lend 50k and they would play HU on UB back when Mike played there. And at the time Russ was usiong the Super user account. Mike lost like 2 million. As well his famiily took his computer away because he lost so much money. For those who don't know mike is a consitant winner. Winning 1M in 08 and in 07. He aint like DWan who loses 3 mil here and wins 2 mill here. Dwan stratagy is high variance and he could go broke fast. He lost liek 1 million to Ivey in a HU PLO game. The thing is looking at the biggest pots in the Durrrr challange , some of the pots Dwan won were suckouts. Like Patrick would flop a set vs Dwan's nut flush draw and pair of aces, and gets a spade on the spade on the turn and wins.



Dwan is up 140k after 4k hands tho.



In addition Daniel himself has quoted " If Phil Ivey were to start, it’d be Dwan’s last Challenge. He’s barking up the wrong tree.”



He will propably lose his bankroll or maybe jsut a lot of money. Mike has said he did hte same before, thinking he was the best.



The main point is Tom dwans success is a temporary thing before the odds start playing out and his suckouts stop. I saw him go all in on the turn with a OESD and hit it on the river vs top pair aces.



Or a hand when he was playing David Ben.. (i dono how to spell his name) Where dvid had set of four and Dwan had top pair Jacks ace kicker. ANd David raised over the top 2 times. This guy still called with nothing but top pair.



What he is doing is basicly saying "I don't give a ***** i'm going all in..i'm tom Dwan" people fear maniacs and play tight vs him. That's why Patrick Antonius lost many more hands but profited mroe for hands he did win.



WHen Ivery gets to Dwan, i say it is over. When you have two super agressive guys, bluffs tend to be harder. And Ivery has the advantage, Dwan just has ignoreance.



Consider the play at NBC HU when he played Hellmuth



AA vs 1010. Hellmuth limped liek he always does on the button, dwan raise with 1010 and phil re rasies, dwan shoves.



I mean, it's jsut reckless play with high varience which so far he has avoided...sorta.



He is down like 1million or more not sure.



I think we need to focus on the bread and butter of poker Brunson, Negranu, hellmuth, Matesow, Farha :),



These plays always win, and hardly do you see them record huge losees, at least online.



I think we should really stop giving attenion to Tom "going broke" Dwan. Because he is an example of those kinds of people who win pots with huge swings. UP or DOWN. You might as well play blackjack and bet half you bankroll everytime.



Bottom line, i think for people whjo want ot become good players watching Dwan is a bad example he may handle the swings but when they get really big. He'll be playing with you again at NL 2 cent 4 cent.



thanks for the read.

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sirnordle

wow you've waited a long time to reply to this blog, did you bury it in a time capsule ?

2010-09-25 09:55:32

b3rs3rk3r

Bet this guy feels like a jackass. It's september 2010 and dwan is thom Dwan is still crushing on Hellmuth, Negreanu(you mispelled about every name in your rant), and everyone else with the exception of a select few. Tom Dwan is on eof the greatest poker players ever. Only a select few in the world could rival him. It's funny to hear the same thing everytime an agressive player enters the poker scene. Gus Hansen, Phil Ivey, and Zigmund are all going broke too huh? Everyone sucks out... and everyoe will get sucked out on. Sometimes the cards play themselves and people are too dumb to realize that you cant fold pocket aces on a board of A888 vs an agressive player. You mine as well fold pocket kings preflop everytime you get reraised.

2010-09-25 09:49:42

birjorge

Lolz at this post so durrr made about 20 mill in online winning based on luck hahahaah. Plz watch HSP and STFU this is comming from a previous durrrr hater.

2009-04-24 16:35:57

stan7777

Pretty tough analysis on Durrrrr frankly. Not my favorite player for sure. But every player goes through losing streaks. Most pros have gone broke at some point, so they say. And Negraneau lost 1 million dollars playing high stakes poker at the Balagio at Bobby's room in a single session. Cards run funny whether your playing 1/2 no limit or 200/400 PLO.

Don't worry about the size of thier bank account. They can manage that. LOL I was reading this blog and some comments and thought of various online and live players and who can transition well back and forth. I like Ivery as the best who came from live to online. Online to live I think it's hard to argue against Patrick Antonious. Though I also think  Brian Townsend is turning into an excellent live player. And about a year ago Townsend dropped 2 million in a short period of time. Swings happen. They are just more pronounced because of the number of zeros involved.

The real question is how do you measure the quality of a poker player? Is it money won at net over a specified period of time? Or is it getting all your money in with the best hand consistantly? You can have vastely different lists depending on how you value skill and the subsequaint analysis.

2009-03-09 07:24:54

utdroad

And Russdog.. i saw his maddest win EVER.. he hit the straight flush on the river, to flopped quad 10's.. fkin unreal.. and that pot was for over $700k.. again.. on full tilt.. apparently at the time, it was the biggest online pot EVER!! not sure if it still is..

2009-03-09 06:53:27

utdroad

nearly broke? must have done some donking cause he was $8 million up in december alone..

2009-03-09 06:49:14

riversuckout212

I agree dwan is good. His aggressive image helps him take down his monster hands. I do the same in NL 1/2. Where i go in calling every three bet with random hands and people think when i call i got nothing. Then i get a hand like QQ and call flop a queen and they have some rnadom hand and i check they bet i smash it all in. Works everytime. Online players judge you on your image. If Durrrr played on a diffrent account i think he might go broke.

People willing to stake him? For sure the top high stakes players are mostly friends. They give each other money to play. Liek hte one time Gabe Kaplan smashed high stakes poker on GSN. Doyle gave him money and other did too i think. They know that he plays well and so they gave him the money. Like 50k?

I don't know if people are willing to stake Dwan for like 2 million. Maybe like 100k at most.

He stratagy is good and he abuses his image well. I am not to sure of his bankroll, let his accountant deal with it. If he goes broke it won't make me feel any diffrent.

The thing is people new to poker or maybe learning or developing their game and bankroll really need to stay away from him. But if you got like 5 million go play with Durr or Ivey. Like i see this guy "Larslazuk" or somthing like this. I see him consitantly pounding the pro's.

Overall Dwan is good, but i think Ivery will crush his Bankroll so hard, people might not want to stake a egotisic gambler with their money.

I mean if he blows through 10 mill? WOuld you stake him unless you know hes good?

I recall Ivery lost his BR. But i think the top pro's use like 200 BI.

Thanks for commenting and reading.

2009-03-09 06:48:57

projamm

Wreckless and wild works for some people.  Just ask Gus Hansen, he's made a career of wild and wreckless.

2009-03-09 06:45:11

russdog2007

He is a Trust Fund baby. He is sick. But, how long can he keep winning with crap. Full Tilt loves a Donk. But he got started by hitting a 1 outer straight flush with all his money on the river against a made Full House. I would have sworn off poker forever if that had happened to me online.

2009-03-09 06:42:19

papapower

Not sure where you're getting your stast at but I can tell you one thing.... Tom Dwan will NEVER go broke as every shark out there is waiting in line to stake him.

There are probably 15 GREAT online poker players. Dwan is among this group. Doyle Brunson, Sammy Farha and Daniel Negreanu have ALL admitted they are better players LIVE that they are online.  Durrrrr   is the opposite.

2009-03-09 06:37:08

chippers

i watch alot of the play at the high limit games that the so called greats play in and to be honest alot of them play like its play chips i dont see alot of great play there seems to be easy cash to be made up there if u had the cash to play them.

2009-03-09 06:35:22

bonusdeal

I think Tom Dwan is a great player..so is Matusow...

the swings in poker happen all the time....im sure just about every player has gone broke at some point? not for the high blood pressure..

 

2009-03-09 06:31:13

dblock978

 I think tom is a ok player, but he won alot of his money on luck hands and is now losing.

2009-03-09 06:30:07

vvolf69

*hmm don´t know about durrr´s bankroll but some things which are mentioned here i saw with my own eyes.

i watched a game NLHE on tilt between him and phil ivey and i saw some incredible high pots including some strange allins on flop or turn with really bad odds.

f.e. i saw a pot durr goes allin on flop with nothing but a flush draw. he shoved out of position and ivey insta called with top set. this pot was nearly $200,000... i shooked my head and watched it for additional half an hour and saw a pot similar to the one before when he overplayed a straight draw out of position.

it seems to me that durrr plays to much semi bluffs and that his play has some bad leaks. phil ivey is known to be a really well schooled and patient player so i´m not wondering about this...

2009-03-09 06:28:39

chippers

can any 1 tell me if he even started at lower limits i heard hes got wealthy family so started at higher lvls straight off .

2009-03-09 06:28:06

chippers

nice post i watch him play alot in the omaha and nl against gus and others he seems to do really well to me when ive watched him ive seen him win a few mill in as many hours .im not sure he will go broke does any one know how much hes won online that would be interesting.but i imagine hes got enough to take a pounding to his br and still recover

2009-03-09 06:26:42

andyfxiv

I 100% agree with spaz. He is a -SICK- player and everyone could stand to learn a little from him.

2009-03-09 06:25:36

spaz

lol seriously?
durrrr is one of the absolute sickest players online and is definitely in the top handful of poker players in the world.
yea he plays a higher-variance style but he crushes.

even if he somehow busted his entire bankroll with this challenge there would be people lining up to stake him for the high stakes online.

people wanting to be good players can ignore him but people wanting to truly grasp the game and become great players can take some notes.

2009-03-09 06:20:25