this is about yesterday's daily quiz. Below is the question and the Railbird motivation. My 'motivation' for posting this in a blog is to show 'why' there are more and more people betting the farm all-in on nothing but a pair preflop, at any risk. The question even states you are 320 of 780, surviving a field of 9,500, in a $5,000 FREEROLL. The RB motivation contains the comment, "Fold? In a freeroll? No." Given this 'advice', why wouldn't every player who reads it EVER fold a hand, even deep in a freeroll? This, to me, is nothing more than 'bet the farm and pray for Lady Luck'. Screw the cards, the raise, the re-raise, just - you MUST go all-in. If you read DarkDoom's blog of yesterday, which had to do with KK play and it received dozens of good replies (ultimately deleted), you can see the problem unfold - or NOT fold - as is the case here. Remember - the Railbird PRO said - "Fold? In a freeroll? No."
QUIZ - It's a $5,000 freeroll with around 9,500 starting. You're 320th out of 780 and have 8,000 in chips when you get K K in middle position. It's folded to you and you raise to 2,400.
The next guy raises to 4,800 and the big blind goes all-in for 8,500. Should you call? To how much should you have raised?
Railbird motivation
Fold? In a freeroll? No, I'm sure you're leading, and it will be a long way to go before you reach the attractive spots, so there's no reason for fine play. Your raise pre-flop might have been a tad too much, you can't fold after raising to 2,400...
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4 comments
Here's my reasoning. 1) the motivation makes no comment on the odds -hand or pot- hopefully that is just 'understood', but not by the reading masses. 2) the 4800 raise is likely to call as well, leaving it a 3-way hand. Are the 70/30, 80/20 odds still valid? They say AA is 70/30 heads-up, KK has to be less 3-way. 3) I've survived to 320th, obviously playing solid, tight poker (I would hope). Why would I risk my $5,000 payday on nothing more than Lady Luck when I can use my chips to play a better hand postflop?
In this example, KK is not a made hand, just part of 'any 2 cards can win' preflop in a 3-way. I just think the 'motivation' sends the wrong mesasage, one that is used regularly by the many players that are blogged as 'donks'. Guess I'll just never qualify for the Degree All-In Moment...
My answer was to raise to 1700 preflop, which was 3X the big blind. But to fold to that all in on the flop when the flop missed your Kings. You still had 6500 chips left and why risk them on a gamble like that. Using the railbird reasoning with that flop of 7 8 9 the guy could very well have been a "donk" and made that bet with a J 10 and hit the straight.
I to believe that some of the answers to some of those questions could be leading to all of the preflop all ins in our tournaments, which is the answer to many of these questions.