Last night I was at my usual £3.00 + £0.50 University tournament, where I really do feel I've been improving. However, there was a point in the game which essentially left me gutted, and I've got an alternative play in my head of which I'd be interested in whether any fellow railbird agrees.
I'm afraid I cannot remmeber the exact chip numbers nor even the exact flop!
I held KQs in mid position and it was folded around to me. KQs felt like a hand I could play strongly in this position as I was new to the table and I like to get people to notice that I at least play a couple of hands. As such, I raised 2.5xBB from my slightly-over-average stack. All except the button called.
The flop came J 5 X (X being I can't bloody remember!) and I figured he hadn't hit anything or had a low set. I wanted to know which it was so I bet again roughly 3xBB and he called. Turn came a 10 giving me an open-ended straight draw. I believe I bet 3xBB again and he pushed all-in.
After a very long time in thinking, I decided to fold and keep my chips. However, I was VERY rattled by how many chips I'd lost because of my betting a pure draw and also by the fact that as I was designated dealer I asked the other guy in the hand whether he minded if I dealt the River. He had no objections and it was a 9. It was certainly a mistake of me to deal the river!
The question I have is, because of my blog a week ago about mathematical Poker, I am wondering as to whether if I had done the maths on the table I'd have felt better about the result.
For example: If I were to work out that calling would be profitable, would YOU still do it? After all, this is a profitable situation! However; if the draw is missed, I'm basically out! I feel that if I was less naive I would have called and, whether I had have hit the draw or not, at least I'd have found justification in my head and I'd not have to write a long-winded blog because I'm still thinking about it a day later!
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13 comments
My final paragraph was relating back to the whole mathematical poker blog. I feel that, if I can worked everything out, I wouldn't be thinking too strongly about this hand. I would have reached a conclusion based on maths and made the correct play.
I'm also curious as to another way of looking at it. Say for example that calling is profitable. Would there be anybody who would still argue to fold because if they did miss then they'd lose their chair?
fact is your still betting all your chips on a draw. I dont care what math you do, i would not do it. I just read that back and it sounds a little rude, I assure you i do not intend it that way. I am going to pm a friend that is better then i am at this stuff and see if i can get him to look at it for you.
How far were you from the money?
How many chips were involved?
I'm not all that good at odds myself, but you had 8 outs for the straight. Four of those outs were from the butt end of the straight. He may have already had the Ace high straight that could have cost you the rest of your stack.
This was about an 18% chance of hitting a straight. Not good enough for me to call with all of my chips.
Ok I'm doing my best to understand all this, and honestly it's hard to decipher exactly what's going on without more detail, but from what I can see the problems started on the flop when you put him on a set and still decided to bet the turn instead of seeing if he was going to let you peel a free card, considering at this point the board didn't look overly intimidating to a set. Aside from that lets talk about your actions on the turn.
Why? 1st because of the size of your bet. If your going to bet at it again, you have to bet more than 1/4 the pot, that screams I'm weak, but I hope your weaker in my eyes. Even if he didn't push your giving him 5-1 to make a call here so even if he only has bottom pair your pricing him in.
2nd because if your going to bet the turn the best thing to do is check raise, and make your opponent make the tough decision now by stealing the position.
As to how it played out and you calling his all in, mathmatically without knowing how much was in the pot and so on, we can't answer that, but from appearances folding was by far the correct option.
its quite simple really, you must not know your odds and outs im thinking?? if you cant take your time as you are playing the hand and work these out for yourself then you have to learn them. As you play the hand then you can see before you fold or chase these hands if its going to be profitable. Its essential in my eyes.
If you mean that you mathematically made the right fold, then you did. Unless you commited yourself to the pot and then folded, it could be viewed as a mistake. All I can say really is learn your odds and probs, and you have to be able to figure them out at the tables. best of luck.
If you think the straight would win if you hit it, then you have 8 outs to make it. Only 8 of the unseen cards help you, so there is a 1 in 5 or 6 shot at making your hand, or there abouts. The pot size has to be 5 to 6 times the size of the bet you have to call, or larger, for the math to say call, even then know, you will lose more often then you win, even with the right math !
It just isn't a good idea to get all your money in on a draw, even a good draw with pot odds !
....Tc....
I thank you guys for the help, and I hope this advice helps you Jae, there is some really good stuff here buddy.
Be safe / be well
Sires
i would have called
u had open ended
u still had chips left
and if u hit u would def have won (meaning implied odds)
the worse he could have was a low set
and he waited along time to push
so i am thinking he had 2 pair
i play alot of omaha so i ssee alot of drawing hands
and in that situation with the most u would have
had to pay was 1k to 1200 i would have called
if u had at least 4 to one odds when u called u had correct pot odds
ur odds of hitting were 5 to 1 but with him being all in i would go as
far as 4 to 1 because u would not have to worry about calling anymore
on the river
good luck