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What do you do in this spot ... ?

Nov 6, 2008 1:42 pm Report Abuse

Short Handed (6 max PLO tourney). Down to the last 7 players. Stack sizes all between 76k and 62k except for the shortstack at my table with 10k left

Full Tilt Poker Game #8836431327: $3 + $0.30 Rebuy (67447715), Table 6 - 800/1600 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 7:27:29 ET - 2008/11/06
Seat 3: juggerone (76,969)
Seat 4: pas101 (10,574)
Seat 5: PookieGirl2 (62,980)
Seat 6: Nyller (62,220)
juggerone posts the small blind of 800
pas101 posts the big blind of 1,600
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PookieGirl2 8s8h7d5h
PookieGirl2 calls 1,600
Nyller folds
juggerone calls 800
pas101 checks
*** FLOP *** 3d4d6h
juggerone checks
pas101 bets 4,800
PookieGirl2 raises to 19,200
juggerone raises to 67,200
pas101 calls 4,174, and is all in

What do you do: Fold or Call all-in ?
I'm very sure Villain has a set.

If I'm up against a flush draw and a set it works out that I'm about 36%, Set is about 36%, Flush draw is 28%.

So if I call,
36% - I'm a bit better than 1 in 3 to be chip leader with twice the stack of the 2nd placed player.
28% - I'm chip leader with 100k
36% - I'm out in 6th

If I fold I become the short stack.


Here's what happened ...



PookieGirl2 calls 42,180, and is all in
juggerone shows 4h8cJs4c
pas101 shows AdTdTs5c
PookieGirl2 shows 8s8h7d5h
Uncalled bet of 5,820 returned to juggerone
*** TURN *** 3d4d6h 3h
*** RIVER *** 3d4d6h3h 2c
juggerone shows a full house, Fours full of Threes
PookieGirl2 shows a straight, Seven high
juggerone wins the side pot (104,812) with a full house, Fours full of Threes
pas101 shows a straight, Five high
juggerone wins the main pot (31,722) with a full house, Fours full of Threes
pas101 stands up
PookieGirl2 stands up
juggerone stands up
Nyller stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 136,534 Main pot 31,722. Side pot 104,812. | Rake 0
Board: 3d4d6h3h2c
Seat 3: juggerone (small blind) showed 4h8cJs4c and won (136,534) with a full house, Fours full of Threes
Seat 4: pas101 (big blind) showed AdTdTs5c and lost with a straight, Five high
Seat 5: PookieGirl2 showed 8s8h7d5h and lost with a straight, Seven high
Seat 6: Nyller (button) didn't bet (folded)


22 comments


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Jus-Blaze247 Nov 6, 2008 3:03 pm
You should have folded when when
Me_Tom Nov 6, 2008 3:08 pm
I hardly play omaha, but i think it all comes down to...Do you want to win or do you want to make the final table. You made your choise, just to bad it didnt work out for ya. Hopefully you have some better luck next time!
djharmon Nov 6, 2008 7:30 pm

if you fold, yes you are short stack, but not in dire straits short stack and i would have played this as a bubble hand. get to final table and then see if you can catch a speeder.

........................................................................dj

theman_mot Nov 6, 2008 7:38 pm

i fold and i prolly wouldnt have raised pot when you did either,but i tend to play real soft in omaha.I wouldve folded only because of the fact you have no redraws any diamond you have to believ your dead any pair on the board too

narizblanco Nov 6, 2008 7:42 pm
I would fold becaue of the 2 diamonds. If the flop was a rainbow I call. Got to fold the turn however too many cards can beat you. That hand illustrates why PLO is such a brutal game
tim4u Nov 6, 2008 7:49 pm
at the flop you have a made hand,,,flush draw and the fact you needed to avoid the board pairing,,,,,off the top of my head you were behind slightly,,,maybe 52/48,,,,,,a coin flop,,,,you had a good read,,,,and knowing internet play bound to lose,,,,go with the gut maybe ,,,,and fight another day,,,but you did what i would have done and called,,,,good gaming and good luck
castlebayPS Nov 6, 2008 7:58 pm
damn u shoulda folded for real
PapaPower Nov 6, 2008 8:00 pm
The post flop raise to 19,200 pretty well committed you there, I would say. I find that when I'm in those types of situations with a 'made' hand and needing to avoid the Turn and River, I will call or min raise. If there are any large re-raises, insta fold. That way, I have saved some outs and can get away from the hand.
chapeltuno Nov 6, 2008 8:14 pm
I figure heads up your 62 % favorite to win and against 2 opponents your 35% to win. Even with the nut hand at the flop you have to figure you up against a set at best and at worst your up against the same hand with the possibilites of a flush draw added. In this spot in the tourney knocking out the 7th place player would probably be my first objective than to bump heads for my whole stack.
XPOKERCHIC Nov 6, 2008 9:34 pm
Fold and live to fight another day. X
PookieGirl2 Nov 6, 2008 9:51 pm
I guess another possibility was to have raised just 4,200 to put the short stack all-in. This would have limited the other stack to a bet of about 36k which would have been 27k more back to me. Then I can chose to take off a card and muck if the board pairs. This may also have resulted in the other stack just calling (as short stack is all in). In the end my call was to give myself a good shot at 1st ($260) or bust 6th ($40)
onefast10 Nov 6, 2008 9:55 pm
would have let it go pre flop its a very weak 2-6 not worth playing
PookieGirl2 Nov 6, 2008 10:24 pm
I'm happy with my pre-flop call. My hand is favorite over a random hand, and we are playing very short handed and I will be last to act on all subsequent streets. The initial cost is about 3% of my stack.
JBug40 Nov 6, 2008 10:43 pm

I kind of agree with onefast10, i would probably have folded pre-flop with that hand. I play a lot of PLO and middle pair with 2 lower cards is most often trouble. I guess you could have been lucky if the board would have been paint and had given an excust to fold to a bet . . . I see your kind of hand like pocket jacks in NLHE, not very strong but difficult to laydown pre-flop.

That being said, your read post-flop was correct and it was down to dumb luck for the other to hit his boat. If i would have played that hand, i would most likely have played it the way you did. However, i would hesitate to play such a hand in that situation.

A55A55IN Nov 6, 2008 11:10 pm
pas bets.....

you go over the top.....

jugger goes overtop you

pas goes all in

I would have folded

especially since you had a read on jugger with a set.

a set gives him ~8 outs for a boat or better. (three-3's, three-6's, one-4, & runner runner pair(~one out equivalent)

Fold and live to play another hand
onefast10 Nov 7, 2008 12:10 am
your hand is not a favorite against a random hand out of your 6 possible starting hands you have a very weak 2 most pros only play a solid 4 or higher
leavem Nov 7, 2008 12:21 am
i would have folded, but then if I think someone has a set they won't be able to fold and will probably get their boat.
PookieGirl2 Nov 7, 2008 12:46 am
FWIW:

Railbirds card: 8sRailbirds card: 8hRailbirds card: 7dRailbirds card: 5h vs Random hand
Omaha Hi Simulation - 600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
8s8h5h7d 52.09% 309,903 5,284
**** 47.91% 284,813 5,284


Railbirds card: 8sRailbirds card: 8hRailbirds card: 7dRailbirds card: 5h vs 2 Random hands
Omaha Hi Simulation - 600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
8s8h5h7d 34.68% 204,538 7,074
**** 32.67% 191,812 8,426
**** 32.66% 191,701 8,514
Markie141 Nov 7, 2008 1:03 am

Well , I don't see myself betting that much on a straight on that

flop , but if I did I would have to fold there , I can always get

myself back in it as a short stack and make a good comeback

and make a run at it , if I'm out I'm just out , gl

tomfmason Nov 7, 2008 1:18 am
Pretty much an insta call. You were basically pot commited and at worst was about a 2:1 favorite. It just looks like you were on the negative side of variance here

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