Strategy Testing Results - Part 2: Stats by Tournament Stage

Opponent Hand Range they call with ~ by Tournament Stage

There are a number of reasons I believe calling ranges change as the tournament goes on, some of which I will show in the statistics tabled below, and some of which is a little softer and not quite so evident in the stats. However I have divided the tournaments into 4 sections (remember that these are Turbo tournaments)

1. The early stage of the first few levels.
2. The middle stages where some players have double up and some haven't, but the blinds are climbing
3. The bubble stage, as the blinds continue to put pressure on players wanting to make the money
4. The Final stages, generally after the money has been made

Here are the statistics by Tournament stage


Early Tournament
In the early stages of the tournament, I believe there are plenty players who are hoping to double up quickly and are willing to take risks to do so, there are players who are new to poker, and there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that there are some god awful players who will "call with any two cards".

Looking at the statistics in the table above, we can see in the Early column (Blinds 20-150chips) that there appears to be a fairly even distribution of calls across all hand types. The first thing to notice though, it that 45% of the time our push was not called. This is likely a combination of people not defending the blinds as the represent only a small percentage of their stack ... combined with the more experienced players having a reluctance to "put your life on the line early".

You will notice that the statistics show that there are more non-Ace suited hands, small pairs, suited connectors and junk hands calling during this period. These are all speculative hands, that indicate that the players calling are willing to gamble.

The number of players playing the big hands (ie the top 4 ranges shown) is 18.2%. This means that if we play these hands, when we push we are 45% not called and called by a weaker/dominated hand 36% of the time. Roughly this means that we will be in good shape 2 out of 3 times we are called and likely in a coin-flip the remaining time.

Lesson 1: early in the tournament don't call with speculative hands.
Playable Hand Range: AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AK


Mid Tournament
At this stage (on either side of the first break) some bad players have gotten lucky and have a stack; some good players have doubled up. The table shows that people now become more inclined to call as the blinds start to put pressure on those that have not yet increased their stacks. The rate that we are called has now increased to 60%. This is most likely caused by players being more willing to defend blinds that make up a higher proportion of their stacks. During this phase you will often see the blinds start approaching a point where the BB is being offered 3:1 odds to call your shove, which he should rightly do with any two cards.

What you should notice is that the calling rates are now starting to shift toward hands that have an Ace and more mid pairs are willing to call your all in. However, note that the increase in the number of times you get called is almost entirely in the lower end of hand strength (defending blinds ?). You will get called 5% more often but the times these are low straight draws, any two suited or other junk hand accounts for 4.3% of this increase.

If you look at what this means in terms of hands you should be playing, you should look at hands that do well against hands like weak Aces, and face cards.

Lesson 2: Your Opponent will fold 40% of the time, play a very weak hand 16.5%, have an Ace 15.6%, have a pair 10.1%
Playable Hand Range: AA-77, AKs-ATs, AK-AJ


Bubble Stage
At the bubble stage there will almost always be a couple of players who are close to being blinded out, along with one or more larger stacks willing to push the mid stacks around. You will notice that the smaller stacks will start to make calls with any two cards to defend their blinds, while the bigger stacks will start to loosen up their pushing range and tighten up their calling ranges.

Note that you will get called almost 2 out of 3 times with your pushes during this phase, as they will often appear to be (even though they may actually be) stealing attempts.

If you push, typically one of two things will happen.

1. You will be called by a mid/short stack with a big hand AA-QQ or AK
2. You will be called by one of the blinds who has an Ace or complete random hand

Note that the distributions of hands that will call you gravitate toward the top or bottom ends.

Lesson 3: The smaller stacks in the blinds will call more frequently, the bigger stacks less frequently
Playable Hand Range: Push more often dependent on stack size and table position (see later sections)


Late Stage
The late stages of tournaments see players starting to tighten up a little as they make a run for the final table. In fact the calling frequency drops from 66% down to just over 50%. Think about this for a second. ... You will only be called one in two times you shove.

Also during this stage players will often encounter short handed play. As a result the value of high cards increases, with players aware that their opponents have a preference for higher cards. As a result most players will be aware that playing mid and low pairs will often result in coin flip situations where a player will call with two over-cards.

Looking at the statistics, half the time you get called will be by a hand that has two high cards. One quarter of the time you get called will be by a mid/high pair. What this would indicate is that we should be shoving more with any pair as we will likely win without showing 50% of the time, in a coin flip 25% of the time and dominated a little less than 10% of the time.

Lesson 4: Push more often as you will win the pot uncontested half the time, do this especially with pairs.
Playable Hand Range: Push more often dependent on stack size and table position (see later sections)



on to Part 3 .......