fold equity part 2

post flop thoughts

most discussion of fold equity pertains to pre-flop short -stack decisions. however, a big part of tournament poker is making raises and re-steals post flop, and fold equity is a huge factor in dertermining whether the raise or re-steal is a valid play.

when considering whether to put in a raise post-flop you must evaluate the same factors as you did pre-flop, except you now have more information to work with. you know what your opponent did pre-flop and you have the flop to help define things more clearly.

a good time to apply fold equity in post-flop decisions is when you have a big draw or belive your opponent is bluffing. let's look at an example of having a big draw to show what i am talking about.

the blinds are 250/500 with a 50 ante. an early-position player raises pre-flop and a middle player calls. you call as well from the cut-off with and everyone else folds.

there is 5,700 in the pot and you have 30,000 in front of you. your two opponents have 25,000 and 50,000.

the flop comes giving you an open-ended stright draw plus a flush draw. a monster flop for sure.

the pre-flop raiser bet's 5,000 leaving himself 20,000. the middle position player folds. a mistake here would flat-calling. say you call and the turn comes with a non-diamond face card. your opponent now bets all-in you have to fold, by moving all-in or making a raise on the flop you avoid this predicament.

even though you have a huge draw, it's still just a draw and there is nothing wrong with taking the pot down on the flop. another problem with calling is that if you hit your draw on the turn , you might not get paid off. if however, you shove all-in, receive a call and then hit, you get maximum value from your hand.


ignoring fold equity

now, having seen how fold equity works in theory, lets spend a minute thinking about how it works in pratice. in reality many people rely on it to much. a short-stack will move all-in for 10,000 and a player with 12,000 stack and will fold because they aren't first to act. when people get short stacked they have a natural tendency to panic and they start playing hands they would never dream of playing.

folding hands like middle pocket pairs and two face cards can be a mistake in these situations. think about it this way. if you were first to act from the cut-off with a short-stack and had would you fold ? no, you wouldn't. say you had 12,000 in chips and were first to act from middle position with the blinds at 1,000/2,000. what kind of hand would you need to move all-in here?.

the answer is not much. the probability ( and believe it or not, poker is largely a game of probability) is that is either way ahead or in a race situation, which means over the long run this is largly +EV situation. i know people say that it's better to raise then to call a raise but sometimes you just have to ignore fold equity.

here is an example to illustrate the point. you have 15,000 in chips with the blinds at 1,000/2,000 with a 200 ante. you have been waiting patiently for a hand to play. you have lost nearly 10,000 in chips the last 2 orbits just folding. you are delt on the button and are anxious for the action to get to you so that you can move all-in. it is folded to the cut-off who moves all-in for his last 20,000. you instinctivly reach for the fold button. but wait ! don't do it !

think about it what is the range of hands your opponent could have ?. let's say he plays similarly to you. what would you move all-in with here ? alot worse then right ? you can fold the hand and keep your tournament life, but it's not guranteed that you're going to get an opportunity to open-shove first to act. doubling up here could be huge though, as it would put you in position to play some poker.


key point

dont let the concept of fold equity and preserving your tournament life allow you to fold what would clearly be a +EV call. think about how your hand plays against your opponent's all-in range.


summery


fold equity is an integral part of tournament poker and has a say in many of the decisions players make over the course of a tournament. however, that doesn't mean it should be the overriding factor in every decision you make. poker is a dynamic game and each hand is different.

where folding might be the proper play in one particular hand, calling or raising might be the correct play in a diffrent hand. don't forsake other plays simply because fold equity doesn't exist and when you do use fold equity make sure you understand the proper application. it could be the diffrence between a small payday and a huge one.


fold equity in situations when another player has allready raised


when re-raising a raiser pre-flop, you need to have enough chips to induce a fold and your opponent must be capable of folding to a re-raise. the best hands to re-raise with when you are short to medium-stacked are the hands that have a good showdown value like .

moving all-in with these hands is a much more favourable then just calling a raise and seeing if you hit the flop. think about it. if you hit one of your cards your opponent more often then not won't pay you off and when they do call it's because they have you beaten. worse still, two out of three times you will miss the flop and have thrown away the chips you put in pre-flop.

by moving all-in you get the maximum value out of your hand the times you do hit your cards ( or are called by a lessor hand llike or ) and you can win pots pre-flop when your opponent folds.

another way you can use the re-raise fold equity is by re-stealing. if a player has raised from late position. a well timed all-in can be a excellent source of chips. as above, you will need enough chips to induce a fold and you must know your opponent. eight to ten times the big blinds won't be enough to pull off this move -- you'll probably need about 15 big blinds.


if you would like to read the first part of this blog here is the link

http://www.railbirds.com/blog/208040/fold-equity-part-1.html