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The Truth About Pocket Aces

Oct 6, 2008 6:40 pm Report Abuse

There are countless books and articles written about Texas Hold’em. The majority of these contain at least some mention of how to play pocket aces. Since there has already been a lot written about this subject, I do not wish to write another article regurgitating the same stuff that has already been said a million times before. What would be the point? Instead, this article will give you a new and valuable piece of information that, to my knowledge, is found nowhere else.

Here is the most useful secret you will ever learn regarding pocket aces. Read the following sentence carefully, and commit it to a deep place in your memory.

When you are dealt pocket aces, you will either: WIN A LITTLE OR LOSE A LOT. Read that sentence again so you won’t forget it.

Most players rejoice when they discover they have a pair of aces. But they should temper their celebration. They should balance their feeling of elation with the knowledge that, when the hand is over, they will either have won a little or lost a lot.

Of course, it is good to have pocket aces. They are the best hand you can be dealt, and they assure that you have the best pre-flop hand at the table. But do not assume that you are a lock to win that pot. And do not ride those pocket aces all the way to the poorhouse.

Winning a huge pot with pocket aces is rare. The reason is because the pot is not likely to get big if no player can ever beat a pair. And if the pot does get big, then someone probably has a better hand than one pair. Sounds basic, doesn’t it? Yet most players never apply this most elementary reasoning.

The chance of being dealt a pair of aces in the hole is exactly 0.45%, or 220 to 1 against. That’s not a high likelihood, but it is high enough that over the course of several hours of play, you should see the hand more than once. Now, the odds of actually ending up winning the pot with pocket aces is about 2 to 1 in your favor. In other words, you figure to win about 67% of the time you hold a pair of aces. That’s all. That’s probably not as often as many players assume. The way most players act, they must think they are at least a 9 to 1 shot to take down that pot. Not so.

Actually, the situation is even worse than that. Remember our secret: win a little or lose a lot. When this is factored in, it is easy to see that if you win a little 67% of the time and lose a lot 33% of the time, you could easily come out a loser overall, depending on the relative size of the big pots versus the little pots. And this is precisely what happens with many players; truth be known, a lot of players actually come out behind playing pocket aces over the course of many games. Obviously, that is not what you want.

When you get dealt pocket aces, you are correct to feel good about it. After all, you have the best possible hand. And you should raise aggressively before the flop. But the reason to raise is not the reason most people think. The reason is not to get the most money into the pot. The reason is to get the most players out of the hand. There is an important distinction here. You must get the number of players down to two (maybe, three) going into the flop. If you fail to do that, your odds of winning the hand become minuscule.

True, you will win a little much more frequently than you will lose a lot. And played properly, pocket aces can be a huge winner for you through all your games. But the trick is to avoid those costly and devastating times when you lose a lot, a real lot.

Based on this factual way of thinking, here is how you should play pocket aces. Always look at the size of the pot. This is key. If the pot stays small (relative to the size of the game), good. In that case, you can figure you are likely to end up winning, so go ahead and place your value bets and play your aggressive game. If no one calls you, that’s fine. If, however, the pot starts getting big, then beware and pull back. You should figure that the bigger the pot, no matter how it got that way, the less likely you are to take it down. If the pot becomes huge, consider giving up the hand.

If you play pocket aces with this one simple guideline — based on the size of the pot — you will do well playing aces over the course of your poker career.

When you see a pair of aces in your hand, go ahead and feel good. You should be pleased because you have the best hand pre-flop. However, keep in mind throughout the hand that you are bound to either win a little or lose a lot. And play accordingly.

When I first copied this for some reason the writters credits didn't get included, I assure everyone it was NOT an attempt to plagiarize his work. If that was my intent I sure wouldn't have left the link to the page it came from on the top of the article. Sorry about my over sight and here is the Authors credits .

Timmor L. White is the founder and president of Online Poker Systems. He is active in the study and reporting of online-poker playing strategies.



19 comments


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RockSaki Oct 6, 2008 6:51 pm
I agree completely man! Even to make sure I can minimize the number of players. I might even tell people in the round I have pocket rockets so they could possibly lay there hand down; therefore I can play against fewer people in the hand.
allndave Oct 6, 2008 7:00 pm

"it takes a big hand to win a big pot. " 1 pair is not a big hand

p.s. i am not taking credit for that quote.

jandlhart8 Oct 6, 2008 7:04 pm

Thanks for sharing with us. But I'm sure we will still here the badbeat stories of how someones aces got cracked.

!!!!!!!!!WIN A LITTLE OR LOSE A LOT.!!!!!!!!!!!!

words to remember

redsox62axe Oct 6, 2008 7:14 pm
You hit the nail on the head. Having the discipline to fold Aces can save you alot of chips...Peace
CtPokerholic Oct 6, 2008 7:15 pm
RockSaki Oct 6, 2008 12:51 pm
I agree completely man! Even to make sure I can minimize the number of players. I might even tell people in the round I have pocket rockets so they could possibly lay there hand down; therefore I can play against fewer people in the hand.
***************************************************************************
hmmmm, is that within the rules?
tkurchps Oct 6, 2008 7:18 pm

very good blog only 1 problem most r still gonna push in with it and like you said lose a lot i will in fact remember this next time i see those pretty rockets

and take your advise

jonnie2thumbs Oct 6, 2008 7:26 pm
The reason is because the pot is not likely to get big if no player can ever beat a pair. And if the pot does get big, then someone probably has a better hand than one pair.

maybe play with the guys that call all the way to the river with TPTK when there are 4 to flush on the board??

Lou-dog Oct 6, 2008 7:46 pm
where did you copy and paste this from.....not very nice to plagiarize.
Ironman Oct 6, 2008 8:21 pm
I noticed I didnt get the authors name or the site when I copied this. I am trying to find it again, and I will be adding that as soon as I do, sorry
DaleEliz Oct 6, 2008 8:40 pm
GR8 blog Ironman as usual! TY. zmany times people forget if the flop does not fit......FOLD especially if looks str8 or flushish or someone is acting like they have a set. For too many times i found it hard to give up the PP but unless I want to give up the tourney life, folding is a must..... SIGH
Hickoid Oct 6, 2008 9:02 pm

hmmmm Well .... I guess I play mine the losing way then LOL ...... the way I play Pocket Aces is ( WIN A LOT OR LOSE A LOT ) and around 67% of the time I will Win a lot according to the preflop figures...... call me stupid but I will explain my reason for playing AA different

When I get the dredded AA preflop I go ALL IN ... there is a few reasons for this .... first reason would be the only people that will mostlikely call will be hands that you have a big chance of winning from ... callers would be hands like AK KK QQ AQ , hands like that ........ second reason would be that it does what you said , it will get many people to fold and that makes your chances of winning with it better ..... the third reason being that I go by one thing when it comes to Going ALL IN ( Make your Opponent make the bad call or bad fold ) ..... you and every1 else maynot Agree with my reasoning or different style of play but It works for me

You will always have bad days and good days and you should always know when to stop when your having a bad day LOL

Well Great Post and Best of luck to ya and have fun

Hickoid

nevadanick Oct 6, 2008 9:26 pm

First thing, Rock. It is against all poker rules to tell people what you really have. You could also be reported online for disclosing your hand, eventually losing your account on repeat offenses. It's fine to lie about your hand, you just cannot be honest ...

Ironman is right on his points. The problem online is that there are too many players eagerly willing to go all-in against a strong bet, trying to force a hand into an all-in, and the inevitable big hand losses.

As to Ironman's figure on seeing AA 'more than once' in several hours, I have gone numerous tournaments covering many hours and not see them even once. That brings in the one thing missing from the above equations and discussion - variance.

I also find it interesting that there are so few replies to this blog. I would venture a guess that a lot of Birds here disagree. Watching the play even in Bird games, an AA brings with it an all-in bet. Why? Because the AA has been cracked enough times against 'that' player that they only want to see an all-in call and showdown. Good poker? Not in my opinion, but that's what online poker has evolved to.

It's also not limited to no limit holdem either. You see the same play in Omaha, O h/l and stud, limit and no limit. Anyone with AA in their hand is going the max, capping limit rounds, all-ins, etc. Not good play, just what you see commonly online.

Good advice Ironman, but don't think you'll see many following it.

Roofway Oct 7, 2008 11:51 am
TY Ironman this is a very good informational blog...I wish i could articulate my blogs the way yoy do..lol TY again will inbed this in my mind TC AND ALWAYS GL
bigbier Oct 7, 2008 12:43 pm
damm right! f**k pocket aces! I lost so much with this cards last week!
topcat1954 Oct 7, 2008 2:03 pm

WIN A LITTLE OR LOSE A LOT

A Startling Revelation !......To some, I am sure !

I think that one of the hardest thing for people to learn, and understand, when they start playing poker is the fact that 5 cards make up a hand, and just because you have 2 of the highest cards in the deck, DOESN'T automatically mean that you will win !

....Play on... Tc....

DaleEliz Oct 7, 2008 5:14 pm
If u go all in..is it worth your tourney life pre-flop?
Ironman Oct 7, 2008 6:46 pm
That couldn't be more true Topcat,
I was playing a live game a few nights ago, and I caught pocket Aces, ended up splitting the pot because my best 5 cards were the Jack high flush on the board.
I won (well a little bit, but I didn't lose,LOL) and my pocket Aces werent even good enough for me to use at the show down LOL
nevadanick Oct 7, 2008 6:51 pm

Dale >> that's a situation that gets a 'new' blog just about every few days. The same answers keep popping up. Some say - what else would you call with? Others, like yourself, understand that it is just a matter of what Lady Luck decides if you bet the farm preflop.

There is no rock solid answer, imo. I've played the rockets in many variations of bets, I've gone all-in with them pf and I've folded them. AA, like any two cards, are situational. Kenny Rogers said it better than anyone: "You gotta know when to hold em and know when to fold em".

Azhiaziam Oct 7, 2008 6:59 pm
To top it off playing aces loses value expoentially with every caller u would be a 67% favorite HU 45% against 2 basically even with 3 callers after that you start to have a losing hand.

Az Hi Az I Am

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