I have come to a conclusion about Full Tilt Poker
Full Tilt Poker rewards its loyal players (players who play very often) with good luck. Let me explain
For 3 months in a row, I have played at least one heads up $5 sit and go every day. I was blessed with good luck for the most part, netting $150.
Well March break came around and I stopped for a bit because I couldn't play because I went on a trip. I still played periodically in March though but not nearly as often. I played once earlier this week and today. In the match earlier this week, I raised with 89 suited, my opponent called with 87 suited. Flop wa*****. I bet he called. Turn was another 8. I bet he raises and we both go all in. River was a 7 filling him up. Alright whatever that hasn't happened to me in a long time so I brush it off.
Today I play a $5 match and THREE hands went extremely weird.
First hand we have nearly even stacks. He raised to 60 on the button, I called with K9. Flop was 952. I check he bets pot (he made this same play earlier so I didnt think he had a good hand), so I raise to 240 (minimum) thinking he will fold nothing. He calls. Now Im thinking he is calling with overcards or a flush draw or something that doesnt beat me. Turn is a 6, I bet 240 he goes all in I call, he shows 98, and the river is a 7 giving him a straight, another 7 on the river which is ironic because 7 is my lucky number.
Second hand I have 60 chips left, I pick up KT and go all in he calls with 36. Flop is KT9 good flop for me, except the turn and river are Q and J making a straight on the board GRRRRR.
THird hand he goes all in (for my 60) with JT I call with A7. Flop is A72 good flop for me, except that the turn and river are both jacks! He got trips and I lost, in awe of the amazing drawotus.
Well it is my conclusion that FTP rewards frequent players with good luck because I consistently had good luck throughout three months, and I start to not play for a while and I get this, well anyways you get the picture, TTYL
© Copyright 2008
19 comments
my conclusion about ur play
What are u doing calling ppl raising u with hands like k-9 off and 89 suited (well 8-9 aint that bad)
Thats the problem u think cause u raise he cant hit a flop?
He could've hit trips easily, besides when he raises u and u call.
When the flop is 9 high he's not thinking u hit that crap.
So he'll call u down with any two face cards and certainly if hes on a draw even if it is a backdoor. If he misses he'll bluff the river thinking u missed ur AK, AQ hand.
Then when he rivers the nuts u think thats strange when really that is how u are playing urself. So ask urself if thats weird? He calls with 78 he couldve had 77.
And here comes ur passage;
"he raised to 60 on the button, I called with K9. Flop was 952. I check he bet ot (he made this same play earlier so I didnt think he had a good hand), "
So he showed AK that time on a 9-5-2 flop right?
Becuase if u dont think he has a good hand , and he has a garbage hand he hit that flop big time. turn make 9-5-2-6 ur holding K-9 he could easily be holding a-9 or KK anyways.
And going all in with a-7 he'll call with any 2 face cards anyway with ur stack so yh that was rather unlucky then again a-7 is no good hand.
It's my conclusion that u cant say anything about FT based on those hands, only thing u can say is that u played very very bad. Never try to bluff or outplay a weak player. The proper play is too raise pre flop with 10-6 and c-bet the flop only if u find an ACE Q or K.. high flop then if u get a raise u could 3-bet or 4-bet him to take the pot. But when u call or raise with marginal hands remember that u will always HIT a MARGINAL hand nothing more nothing less. Learn from me i used to play like that, sumtimes it works and its more coincidence that it worked when u were regular.
Good luck man..
Fellaman!
Well, your theory might just be that your luck (if there is such thing as luck...) evened out. And what was the deal with "just a call" on the flop? If you have, oh, let's say... K9 and a guy min-raises, re-raise to 150ish so you know where you are at. Then on the flop when he bets go all in and force him to gamble.
Me, I play at FTP a lot (like 3 or 4 tournaments a day) and I get screwed more than Paris Hilton. Maybe you're theory is wrong?
Could it be that you are playing really weak staring hands like K-9? K-10? A-rag? I mean come on, Not one of those is a hand you should even be playing. And you blame Full Tilt because your super weak hands get beat? Really?
Before you go around accusing Full Tilt of Cheating maybe , just maybe you should start playing hands that are even playable don't you think?
And just for the record, in order to even start to get an idea of the typical results for any given site you must accurately track hundreds of thousands of hands.( in fact all the actual studies done on Full Tilt and other sites tracks millions of hands) And EVERY single study ever done, From M.I.T. using super computers, to several Governments, Auditing firms, And public and private groups both for and against gaming have ALL reached the EXACT SAME CONCLUSION. On-line poker sites like FullTilt and Poker stars show results that match the expected out come based on all known odds and percentages.
The bottom line is IT IS NOT RIGGED!
Seriously it is NOT Full Tilt, thats all I am saying.....
I'm the best player in the world my cards never loose in live poker!!! Fulltilt must be rigged!!!!!
Sorry if this is condecending but why do people blame others and not there own bad play!!
Fellaman you put it wonderfully and also gave some good advice. Well done for having the patience to teach.
I feel obliged to give something positive back. All i can muster is poker is a one loooonnnnnnnnnnnnggggggggg game. Don't look at single sessions and say well i lost twice with AK never playing it again look at why you lost and swap places with you opponent to get an idea of why he called your bets etc!
btw
not defending FT cuzz i dont play on FT and never have
I play on stars..
I think your blog should have been titled
"My frustration has allowed my imagination to theorize, justify, and write for public consumption, something I'm going to call a "conclusion" even though the most liberal standard of scientific research is far to great a standard for any thinking person to label this "conclusive" of anything other than i played bad poker... and lost"
well dont be to harsh on him,
any you guys want bad beat stories and really crappy hands like holding aces pf all in against ak and flopping q-j-10 !
Check out my bloggs called Getting The Edge they come in series
Gl on the Felt guys!
Fellaman!
Sorry if this is condecending but why do people blame others and not there own bad play!!
Its not condecending, its the very engine that drives poker. Something about the game makes everyone who plays it think he's great. Because of that feeling of greatness most players won't accept that losses they experience are their own fault; they will blame anything and everything before they look at themselves. Because they won't blame themselves, they don't improve and they don't quit, creating money making opportunities for those who can out play them.
ITS NOT MY FAULT!!!! THIS GAME IS RIGGED!!!! THEY'RE CHEATING!!!! I WANT MY MOMMY!!!! this is a great blog by the way.........I read some article somewhere about how some gaming committee will test and regulate the odds of any card coming up at any given time.In fact, the regulatory committee will not issue a gaming liscence if your software is not certified. For over 15 years I have played in a weekly back room cash game(8 hr marathons)......along with a monthly chairity tourney (200 players-$100 buy in) and let me tell you....NOTHING surprises me anymore NOTHING!!!!!! What I found to be my #1 rule is no matter what....play the players..NOT the cards. Everyone who plays this game can write novel after novel of constant, endless, unfair, idiotic, unbelievable, mind bogggeling, gut kicking, dagger in the heart bad beat stories. CRY ME A RIVER. ...(lol) If you were smart , you would take this FTP conspiracy as a little reminder that this game should be called "Texas Fold em". So man-up,.... shake it off,..... take your head out of your anus and get back in the game... .stop following your heart and go with gut instinct..... we all know that works
It appears some people felt I was blaming full tilt for cheating, which I really wasn't, I am not sore about the loss, it is just simply an observation I made about the site,
fellaman it's more coincidence that it worked when you were regular, for three months I played like that and I won most of the time for theree months I dont think it is coincidence.
Also briefly the comments about tighten up, it was a heads up match, K9 a7 are good hands heads up you are telling me to fold them you rarely fold for the Small blind heads up, even jack high is a favourite over a random hand, so you cant fold the,m especially when you have 3 big blinds anyways again I am not saying full tilt is cheating it is just simply an observation and I dinf it hard to believe it is coincidence that the last three hands were one after another, the odds of each of those hands happening that way is very unlikely
See thats a big misunderstanding in poker,
a-7 heads up.. its not heads up mate.
You have a full table ur A-7 has value when ur shorthanded heads up its not just beig heads up that makes ur ace that good. Sure he could have K sumthing. But even k-9 v.s a-7 is basically a flip anyways. I think everyone should play the same but dont take every poker "rule" or statement literally!
Think about it, if everyone is playing by following the rules like 3x bb for ak ,or whatever the rules are, how would anybody stand out? During a longer period of time every player gets the same cards, its how you play these cards that makes u stand above other players. I understand that u won before playing k-9 like that but yesterday i pushed all in pre flop in cash game for 62 usd and was holding 10-2 hearts i got 3 callers and i hit a fullhouse. Now if i do this today and lose im not gonna cry i just know that playing 10-2 in any position is just stupid. I got lucky!
The way u played those hands earlier is basically just wrong, i know ur not blaming FT ur just blowing off steam for losing hands u shouldnt have played anyways.
K-9 is an okay hand i'd play it sure see a flop, but the problem is; if sum1 raises u pf ur k-9 looks crappy. I've had it happen many a time, trynna get smart raising pf with j-6 flopping J-6-5, only to find the player in position holding AA or sumthing like 77. Now you raised if he's holding 7's that flop dont scare him, u bet he'll call ur so excited that the 7 on the turn doesnt bother u. He called ur PF raise, he prob has K-J right?
Then he wins with trips and u start saying "man i cant believe these donkeys always catch the 2 outer" When really if u hadnt raised he would've raised u pf and you make a decision based on that.
My point is, if u raise with a weak hand if u hit the flop ur hand is still kindda weak. Plus the other guy doenst believ you hit. so he wont fold it thus making the draw very possible and a risk that u are taking. I'd rather limp my A-K to get raised by the K-9 flopping K-K-A and turning the 9.
Well you dont have to listen i mean who am i?
I never got my roll any higher than 7k or so i aint no pro i just have experience even tho i am quite young.
Gl again..
Fellaman!
I do appreciate your comments fellaman I love speculation on poker it is how people get better right, I appreciate you took the time to write comments,
With the K9 I was basically taking a leap of faith he didnt have me beat. I also think it is possible to fold for a min raise on the flop. If someone raises 3X BB and the other person calls, when they check raise minimum to me it is a sign that they love their hand. Also I think it was correct to call preflop with K9- he was raising with 98! The A7 when I pushed the BB was 20 and I had 60, I am not folding any two cards here, I was lucky to pick up such a good hand.
Why did you push with T2 lol I would never push with that hand at a full table, maybe your situation was unique but I dont know the specific curcumstances
Being heads up doesnt make my ace good? Au contraire, the less number of people at a table the more the value of a certain hand goes up. I always thought that was the "rule"
This was not a steam blog, I am not mad I lost $5 - whatever it's not that much money, I am just saying it is extraordinary I would get such unusual luck at this time. Not a steam blog,
TTYL I appreciate the comments
Playing poker anywhere is like marriage. Can't live with it, can't live without it. Ok, so most of us agree that FT is unbiased, but dam.....can't a guy vent some frustration among friends without getting trampled on? At least show a little support for a fellow RB before you trash his theory!
And now that I've shown my sympathy.......I don't think FT rewards or punished either way. I've had stretches with aweful cards and some hot streaks when I'm playing a lot or hardly at all. Streaks are part of poker, online, home games or casinos. Its just part of it. My best advice is to lower your buy in costs till the bad run turns around and cut your losses. Good Luck!