Yesterday I gave the basic strategy to be profitable in your poker playing. Today I want to expand this a little in an effort to clear up some things that can affect the outcome of your play. I said in the 1st blog that to be profitable you needed to figure the odds of probability and the pot odds and compare them in an effort to keep them even, or in your favor, as a formula to become profitable. I had a few comments and Pms on what was wrong with this advice, and there is nothing wrong with it, it just isn't the complete package. I didn't want to overload anybody new to the concept, just give the basics.This blog is an attempt to complete the thought.
Odds of probability are figured by determining the number of "outs" you have to complete your hand. If you have an open ended straight draw you have 8 outs, if you have a four flush then you have 9 outs, if you by chance you have both, then you have 17 outs. When calculating the number of outs you have, it is important that you realize where you stand in relation to the absolute nuts if you make your hand. Let's say you have an open ended straight draw on the flop giving you 8 outs to make a straight in a deck of 47 cards or about a 5 to 1 odds of probability of making your hand, against you. The questions you need to ask yourself are; can this straight be beat, what is the absolute nuts to this board ?
If there are 2 of any suit out there, then a flush is possiable on the turn, if a pair shows up on the turn a full house is possiable, etc. You don't necessarily have to play scared of a hand that can beat you, but you DO need to be aware of where you actually stand in relation to the nuts for the board. It is very important to learn to put your oponent on a selection of hands, and narrow them down to as small as you can, to determine if you NEED the nuts to win, or if your straight will win, if it comes.
Another thing to consider is the stack size of your oponent, if you are close to calling and the odds are reasonably close, then the chip stack of your oponent could be the determining factor in you calling or folding. In a ring game that you have your real money on the table in, you may want to make a call that you are a SLIGHT dog to make, if your oponent has a lot of chips in front of him that you can pillage if your card hits. If he only has a small stack that won't make that much impact on yours, then maybe a gamble isn't the wisest thing here. DON'T consider the money you have already put in the pot, it isn't yours anymore, and should NOT be used to determine whether to play on or not !
In a MTT some will argue that you make as many of these marginal calls as possiable to knock players out whenever possiable.Others will say it is about survival and to fold a drawing hand that you don't have an edge on, and wait for a better oppertunity, because survival is the name of the game. I prefer to think that what matters most is what kind of a read you have on your oponent, and your chip stack size in relation to his. If I am in a tournament, my goal isn't necessarily to knock out players, I am trying to build a sizeable chip stack more than anything else. If I think that I am against a loose player that can be playing any 2 cards, I will often make the call when a slight underdog, but, if I am in with an astute player that has a solid game, usually I am going to let him have it, unless I have a tremendous stack that won't be affected if I lose and double him up.
What it really comes down to is a colaboration of several factors and the skill to put them all together in a short amount of time to help you decide your most profitable play. If you just stick to the basics outlined in yesterdays blog, you should see yourself becoming more profitable longterm. As time goes on and you get comfortable doing those things you can add some of this information given today. It takes time to apply what we learn to our game, it won't happen overnight, this is for sure. What you can expect tho is a continual progression towards profitability as time goes on.
The question was raised yesterday, "How long is long term?" I refered several times to this term and I will give you what I determine to be "longterm" in our poker career. I think that you will see a significant change in your profitability if you learn to calculate the odds of probability, and pot odds within something around 10,000 hands. That could take some people a couple of weeks, and some people 6 months or more, depending on how much and how often you play, it will take some people less, and some people longer depending on how hard they try, and their ability to adapt to change.
Seeing as you are planning to play 10,000 more hands anyway, why not learn to apply these techniques to turn yourself into a profitable player? Nothing worth having comes without some effort, and this IS worth the effort to learn to incorporate these fundamentals into your game, as it truely can mean the difference in banking money won, or going to the bank to get money to play poker with.
.......play on .........Tc...................
© Copyright 2009
17 comments
J/K TC...The more the merrier!
cutler624 am I reading your comment right ? 1st off the times you chase when you don't have odds to call and miss, will cost you more than you could win by hitting an ocasional hand, longterm profitability is the goal here. 2nd Are you saying it is better to fold and lose a pot, rather and call and win a pot that you don't get paid any more for by hitting your hand? That is how I read the comment, I hope I am wrong, because that is just silly to think !
.........Tc...........
Tks. all for the blogs on poker !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and on chasing with worse draw in hopes of getting paid off i will take a quote from david sklanksy theory of poker.............................. 1980 No Limit Holdem World Championship.........Doyle Brunson, a two time world champion had 232,500 in front of him, and his opponent, young Stu Ungar, a gin rummy and poker whiz from New York's lower East Side, had 497,500. In the final hand Brunson held ace ,7, and Ungar, the 4 and 5 of spades. Before the flop, 30,000 went into the pot, and then the cards came ace, 2, 7. Ungar checked, but looking at aces and 7s, Bruson bet 17,000, a bet intended to lure Ungar in. "I wouldnt have called too much more than that for a gutshot" Ungar admitted. "But if Doyle has a hand, its worth 17,000 because if i do catch a 3, Im going to bust him" Ungars call was strictly in terms of the implied odds he was gettting. He had no thought for the 47,000 in the pot at the moment, which gave him less than 3 to 1 odds, but rather for Brunsons entire 232,500 stake. With 15,000 of his own money aslso in the pot, Ungars implied odds were about 14 and a half to 1, and with four 3s available among the 47 unseen cards the odds against making the straight on the next card were about 10 and three fourths to 1. Hence his call. Needless to say a 3 hit on the turn and Ungar bet 40,000. After some reflection Brunson went all in with the remainder of his chips.
cutler624 I did not get into implied odds yet, this is a work in progress that I am presenting in such a way that it can be absorbed by as many people as possiable, in segments that are digestable. The illustration you point out is one I have read as well several years ago. It is a one in a million hand that gained national attention because of who played it and the game it was played in.
What I am trying to do here is help my fellow Railbirds to become profitable playing a game we all love. I intend to post another blog or possiably two to complete this series, implied odds will be covered there. I am writing this from my own expierence and from my perspective. I don't claim it is the difinitive way to be sucessful, just that it has worked for me for several years now.
If you want to dispute what I say, that is fine, it seems to be in your youthful nature. If you choose to contribute helpful insights, that is fine also. I am just offering this up for anybody who wants to read it, and hopefully they will benifit from reading it. I would really like to read a couple of good blogs that you have posted on strategy, yet I can't find any, I do however see you posting negative comments on everybody elses. I am trying to help the community, are you?
............Tc.............