We all enjoy playing a game someone named poker, this is a given, yet most people who play the game never really make any money at it, while others make a lot of money playing. What is the difference in most of these people I came to ask myself. The answer I came up with is in a word, "Profitability". Simply defined it means able to be profitable, that makes sense, but why are some people NOT profitable or able to be.
I believe that the answer lies in how we get our money in the middle. We all read and hear about pot odds, and most here probably have a clue as to what this is all about. I wonder tho how many of the community actually use pot odds to determine their play in any given situation. I think the answer is simple to that question, the players that expierence profitability do use them, and the players that don't find themselves profitable, don't.
Math is used to figure pot odds, and a lot of poker players don't like to do math problems, or were bad at math in school, so they don't want to incorporate it into their game they play for fun. That is fine if they want to remain unprofitable at the game, and have the finances to support their habit. I like the fact that most people don't care if they are profitable or not, that makes it eaiser for me to be very profitable.
We hear TV announcers all the time saying that "he has the pot odds to call", but we hardly every hear anyone say anything about the odds of probability of making a hand. This is half of the equation, and many people have no clue what it is, or how it applies. The odds of probability of making your hand coupled with the pot odds gives you a guide to pofitability that cannot fail you, longterm ! To put it simply, the if the odds of probability of making your hand are say 4 to 1, for you to call the amount bet it has to be 1/4 th of the amount of money in the pot. If you keep the odds of probability AND the pot odds even or in your favor, LONGTERM you will be profitable.
To figure the odds of probability you have to determine how many cards left in the deck can complete your hand. Divide this number into all the remaining cards and this will give you and indication of the odds of making your hand. Next look at the total amount in the pot, and divide the amount you have to call into this total pot. This is where you see the pot odds. If the odds of probability AND the pot odds are even, then call, if they are less than even then fold, and if they are strongly in your favor, then raise as much as you think your oponent will call.
I will give one example to clarifiy this process. You have AK of spades in the hole, the flop comes out 5s, 2s, Qh giving you the nut flush draw, there are 9 more spades in the deck of 47 cards YOU haven't seen. When we divide 9 into 47 it comes out roughly 5 1/2 to 1 and this is the odds of probability you will make your flush. For you to call a $100 bet in this case, you would like to see the same 5 1/2 to 1 appear in the pot odds. That is to say there would be $550 in the pot to keep the odds of probability, and pot odds even.
If you apply this method of determining when to call and when to fold, as long as you keep the odds even or in your favor over the long term, you cannot fail to be profitable ! You wont win every pot and you won't hit every draw, but you will be profitable longterm because you are not putting your chips at risk when you are the underdog, and suppose to lose. You are keeping the odds of winning even or in your favor, and that is the only way to assure that you are a profitable player !.....I hope this gives some Railbirds some insight into becoming more Profitable, there is more to it than this with implied odds, and the ability to read a board and know if you hit your hand if it will win, but this is the basics, and will steer anyone who applies them to a game of profitability.
........play on ........Tc..........
17 comments
yet again another top knotch blog from you tc ...
your blogs are allways a good read , and as my wife would say you have good gramm
atical skills i hope that's how you spell it...
it mean dot's and apostriphies in the right places and man i suck at that shhesh just look at my grammatical error's in this comment ..lol...
Keep'em coming TC
excellent point--that is the reason so many people get out played post flop. anyone can bet pre flop but what can you do with it shown.
the secrets are in the odds
But this MAY be too advanced for many. I know pros that will NOT call unless they are in a good position by a miniumn of 5-10%
Cheers! Alan Chiras.
great blog
tc tc
Very good blog TC, like I would expect anything less.
I truly hope people read this one.
Very nice reminder Topcat!
i have seen plenty of handhistorys here where birdies calculated their potodds- and they did it wrong-because they ignored their own bets from previous betting rounds. maybe you wanna blog about it?
only Best of Luck to You on the felts TC!
it makes sense to me, and thank you for taking the time to blog this. i'm going to try to apply it to my next game and see what happens. as you say i won't win everytime, but at least i won't be calling or folding when i should or shouldn't be.
again ty tc for this info...........
How do you define, "Long term"? Is it all the hands you have played in a week? month? year? The answer is over an infinite period, over millions of hands. You are right about the fact that pot odds alone does not indicate a call or fold. One needs to compare that to the probability of the hand being made to the river. I do not totally agree with calling if they are both even though, sometimes you will have to lay those down too. This will have to be a decision made by the player after observing the opponents' style of play that day. Harrigton on hold'em has touched on this issue on volumes one and two. I think what you are saying here is very true, but for people with limited bankrolls, this may not be enough, because,"long term" may not be a short enough period for them to become profitable. I think one the most important things any player can do is to gain the ability to detmine their opponents phsycology and their tendencies. Of course, the concept of pot odds alone has never been useful unless the players compares it to it's probability. But this alone will not make them profitable, unless they can afford to have a huge bankroll and stay within a certain limit compared to their bankroll.
Great Blog TC
Game On ...
you are dividing your 9 into 48 cards...
Don't you have to minus all the cards dealt out not just the flop cards?
So for example if there are 10 players (20 cards gone) thats 9 divided into 38 after the flop and burn card right?
No playerPO, that is incorrect ! You have to go by the number of UNSEEN cards to you, that is actually 47 (I have fat fingers and hit the wrong key and didn't catch it until it was pointed out to me)...lol.. The other people in the hand or at the table don't work into THIS equation.
...........Tc..............