A Question of Confidence

A few years ago Craig MacTavish, coach of the Edmonton Oilers, said somethng like this

When you are on a winning streak, you play with confidence; the confidence can keep the streak going even when you aren't playing a technically sound game. When you are on a losing streak the lack of confidence can keep the losing streak going even when you are playing a technically sound game.

This truth transcends hockey and is true of virtually any competitive activity, including poker.

Back in October of 2007, I decided that I was going to focus on a single level of STT. This decision was both to increase my focus and to make it easier for me to practice good bankroll management.

I started out by playing in the $5+.5 tourneys on Poker Stars. After a false start in mid-November, I moved up to $10+1 for good at the beginning of December.

Early December was very good to me; I went on a huge tear, nearly doubling my bankroll in about 10 days. If I had had one more good day, I likely would have moved up again. But the streak came to an end.

Since then I have been on a very slow, but steady decline. I have winning days and losing days, but every week shows a loss. While there has been some bad luck here and there, I certainly can't blame this month on bad luck; there have been plently of games I just made bad decisions.

Perhaps most importantly though, is the change in mindset I have had. In early December, every time I sat down to play I just knew I was going to make money. It seemed like even when I made some bad decisions, everything worked out in the end. Now, I try to tell myself the same things I was thinking a month go before I started, but I can't fool me; I know that I have to play perfectly or I will show a loss.

So what's a guy to do?

The last week or so I have been trying to break my routine in different ways, but it hasn't helped. I have tried to take a day off, but I find I just get agitated waiting for it to be time to play again. I have tried playing games other than STT, but the same lack of confidence invades them too, only more so.

So, after another night of bad play tonight, I have come up with a plan to turn things around, a plan built around restoring confidence first, with the idea that other things will follow. Even though my bankroll is still plenty high to support the level I am playing at (I have more than 30 buy-ins), I am going to drop down, way down.

Starting tommorow I am going to be playing the $1+.2 games, with the plan being that I will run over them. I am going to play 20 tourneys, and evaluate how I am feeling after that. Hopefully, I will be feeling like playing the level I can afford, and kicking some butt.